Your analysis of the old man looks promising.
For the rest of the analysis, only time will tell I guess. Either way, the efforts need to be appreciated. The theory is interesting enough for holding my attention till the end.
" This could be Gosho's strategic plan to subvert the readers' expectations by essentially flipping the script right on its head, which in my opinion shows great potential to beating the big twist of the very-beloved Vermouth arc. "
I hope this turns out true.