DCUniverseAficionado

RULES 1. Please use spoiler boxes until a full English translation is available. 2. NO DIRECT LINK to any Japanese scans (RAWs) or English scans (Japanese spoiler images are allowed as long as the amount and quality of which are very far away from a full scan). HOW TO USE A SPOILER BOX? Just simply type the following: [spoiler]Text you want to write[/spoiler] 987 Spoiler Pics: http://tieba.baidu.com/p/4974180690?pn=1 988 Spoiler Pics: http://tieba.baidu.com/p/4984603538 989 Spoiler Pics:

986 spoiler pics are out (see first post of this thread)—and 986 is, as expected, the end of this case. There is, unfortunately, a break next week—we can expect 987's spoiler pics to come out on February 10th.

Yeah, because if she wasn't, she might've killed him right then and there (898/783). Her secret may very well, indeed, be about her relationship to the Boss/Anokata, but he may not know how they're related.

Well, even if she were to find out he's a NOC (assuming she doesn't currently know that he is), she would have to be careful in taking action against him—after all, he said if he dies, her secret will get leaked (898/783).

I think she'd probably focus on getting Hidemi/Rena/Kir exposed and killed—especially considering she already suspected her of being a NOC—after all, the reason Shuichi faked his death was so that she could keep her cover. If she dies, then their plan goes up in smoke (that is, unless she would be able to get out big info to them before she died). No need to bring the BO spotlight on Subaru Okiya, and risk those involved with him being caught in the crossfire. But this is Vermouth we're talking about, here. Rei/Toru/Bourbon would have to be on her level, as an actor, to fool her completely, considering that they're frequent partners—and even then, just one slip up could prove very problematic. If she's Rumi—and her deductive prowess is good enough to be able to hint Shinichi/Conan, of all people—her odds of realizing Bourbon's a NOC are higher, especially in tandem with her acting experience. I think her impromptu appearance during the Hado Rokumichi "murder" (954–957) decreased the odds that she currently knows that Rei/Toru/Bourbon is a NOC. Therefore, I think the odds of contradiction would be lower if Vermouth is not Rumi—it's more likely to me that she's not Rumi and doesn't know that Bourbon is a NOC, than she is Rumi and doesn't know that Bourbon is a NOC. Or Shuichi/Subaru.

Yep. I figured I'd garner that kind of perception while trying to segment an ongoing arc, as opposed to trying to segment an already-completed arc. And until we get said case, the reveal of the Koji Haneda/Amanda Hughes double murder at Rum's hands (either 945–947 or 948–950) is going to serve as said case, for me. File 899–File 946: No Koji Haneda/Amanda Hughes, Asaka and Rum File 947–present: Koji Haneda/Amanda Hughes, Asaka and Rum That may not be enough for you, but—for now—it's enough for me.

That makes sense, since that part must have been foreshadowed for something. I figured she would have to be caught eventually, since she can't give them too much convinient information(since they will likely go through her client-history).

Generally speaking, certainly. I find the chances of that to be very low—plus, it'd be called out for rehashing elements. Ah, so it's a, "as of right now" thing. Is the Rum arc better than the Vermouth arc? If not, than Gosho has been unable to top an arc that finished in 2003. Some want consistent improvement (in DC's case, every long (100–200 File) arc should be better than the last), and, after something like the Bourbon arc, drastic improvement. Right now, we're in the Rum arc's second act. Act I File 899–File 947/Episode 784–Episode 85X or File 899–File 944/Episode 784–Episode 848 (take your pick) Act II File 948–/Episode 85X– or File 945–/Episode 85X– (take your pick) At least, that's how I've been segmenting it.

Sure, he'll be a "main role" in the "threat," but I think some will still be looking for Rum to be the central threat, not just "a main role" in the "threat." One which took around 50 Files for us to get to. Comparatively, it took over 100 Files to get from the start of the Vermouth arc (238–242) to Golden Apple (350–354); it also took around 50 Files to get from the start of the Kir arc (499–504) to revealing how Kir got her codename (553–555); as for the Bourbon arc, it took its entirety (starting at 622–624) for Bourbon's motivation for his grudge against Shuichi to be hinted at (894–898), and until the Rum arc for it to be revealed (954–957). So you think Vermouth wasn't "a high-positioned (authoritative) figure?" Or that the difference between her and Rum, as high-ranking BO members, is enough to warrant throwing out the application of the formula of previous arcs into the current one, because it may not work as well? So it doesn't matter that we don't know (know, not guess, like guessing Rum's after Mary, or something like that) Rum's specific intention(s), like we knew, for instance, that Vermouth was after Shiho/Sherry? So it's not a drawback that makes it of inferior quality to, say, the Vermouth arc? So originality doesn't matter if the execution meets a certain level/threshold? For you and me, perhaps. But as for others? It's just a step up from the Bourbon arc—and I don't think that's very much of a step up, for them. Dragging like the Bourbon arc? It certainly isn't, right now, but Gosho's still the master of dangling plot threads—depending on how the case that features File 1000 goes down, it may very well drag, after that case—we had to wait nearly 50 Files after the multiple descriptions of Rum and the artificial eye info to get to Koji Haneda.

If the Black Org were to test any detective's skills, they would test how well the detective can dodge bullets. Yeah, why beat around the bush, if they think he's an actual threat? It'd be like a loyal BO member (who isn't Vermouth) knowing who Shinichi/Conan is (or, even more so, knowing who Shiho/Ai is) and not taking immediate action.

Good on you for that. Sure, no question. At this point, Shinichi's already a pretty memorable person—he's only appeared in 13 (manga) cases (and plenty of those were flashbacks, and a majority of those flashbacks were to when he actually was 7), compared to Shinichi/Conan appearing in every (manga) case (all 285 of them). At this point, he's pretty much (bar the 6 cases he appeared thanks to the temporary antidote) become a memory—a loose presence. The question is, will he stay like that by DC's end? It's not a matter of, "he's become a memory," it's a matter of, "will he remain a memory?" Yep. They'd have to know—to be told by Gosho—the end of DC being Shinichi/Conan staying Shinichi/Conan and not returning to being Shinichi for this to be a hint.

Yeah, that's the thing—it's vague (just "rats," not a specific BO member or a specific set of BO members), and may just be a hint for the events of a non-canon movie (though Scarlet Showdown came out during and immediately after Movie 18's release, which means Gosho and the movie staff must've been working on Movie 19 at the time, so it may have started as a manga thing, but then, a year later, they decided to make it a movie thing, too). Sure, we can guess that Hidemi/Rena/Kir and Rei/Toru/Bourbon may come under scrutiny, and we may very well turn out to be correct with that guess, but it's just that—a guess. True, but it's the Rum arc—it's expected and desired, I think, for the arc's titular character to be the central threat. Gin has always been a clear threat, and, in this specific instance, it's merely the return, a re-establishment, of a 500+ File old intention of his (just like how Ran's involvement in the Vermouth arc climax returned after 500+ Files). Gosho may be able to take these old things and take them in new directions, but it's a familiar and expected place to start from, this threat, though it is a welcome stirring of the status quo—and that probably doesn't do it for Chek. No one's gonna dispute that—the question is, is this "huge" step enough, right now, and, if not, when is it going to be enough?

Here's the thing about the opening: Shinichi's face is shown at the end... and here's the thing about the ending: Ran is also portrayed as "faceless." And this is anime content, not manga. Gosho only really gets involved with the movies—I'm not sure he's involved in the anime at all. So it'd just be the staff hinting—assuming you're correct—not Gosho hinting... and this is assuming that the anime staff have been told by Gosho that Shinichi/Conan will not get a permanent antidote and will not immediately return to his real age, again, when the series ends.

Indeed.

RULES 1. Please use spoiler boxes until a full English translation is available. 2. NO DIRECT LINK to any Japanese scans (RAWs) or English scans (Japanese spoiler images are allowed as long as the amount and quality of which are very far away from a full scan). HOW TO USE A SPOILER BOX? Just simply type the following: [spoiler]Text you want to write[/spoiler] Translation of File 984's text spoilers, by Spimer from DCTP: And here's an additional spoiler from 984, also translated by Spimer: EDIT: Here are 984's spoiler pics: http://tieba.baidu.com/p/4940276601?pn=1 EDIT (#2): Here are 985's spoiler pics: http://tieba.baidu.com/p/4946882415 And 985's text spoilers, translated by Spimer: 986's spoiler pics: http://tieba.baidu.com/p/4957356841?pn=1

But if he does appear within the next, say, 15 Files or so, he'll be on the list (though the context of his appearance would be consequential, correct)?

And Taka'aki/Koumei, I think, has had more appearances than most of the characters who you've analyzed, right (besides Shinichi/Conan and Kansuke)? So that conclusion has more certainty than most of the other characters you've analyzed, given the larger number of data points you had with him? Have you analyzed Heiji's father? Is that even feasible, given that his eyes are shut, most of the time?

So, we have... Showdown with BO that introduces BO member + immediate followup + revelation of info about BO member (angle/goal that is currently and actively pursued by them, or by a character established to be closely linked to them) = Establishment of premise and currently active threat within 45 Files or so Vs Not having a clean/well-planned start + Solely developing past connections + Unclear effects on things + Info dump mode + Unconnected issues = 80+ Files without an active threat that's unconnected to anything actively developing Som basically, don't wait around with info dumps about vague, unconnected past connections, but, instead, quickly establish an active and currently pressing threat—and thus the premise—of the arc. My question is, does Mary know about the BO's structures and practices? Does she know there's a specific criminal organization apparently killed her husband, and this organization also is responsible for her current state? If so, was it because Elena told her? Is this what led her to suspect who was behind what happened to both her and her husband? Yet. At minimum, she has to know she and her mother are trying to stay under the radar of bad guys. That's the moment I'm waiting for. So the failure here is a failure to reach the level of the Vermouth and Kir arcs, which did design and order plot events so their development would maintain a sense of jeopardy, relevance to other plots, and impact. So you don't mind a lack of addressing meta writing issues as long as you think the fundamental writing issues have been attended to properly. Making it difficult for the experienced—changing up one's trends and tropes—should only be focused on if the writer has time to do so, and has already attended to the fundamentals. All the more reason to not throw Sakurako to the wayside. You bet it'd be a twist. Though I'm more expecting Taka'aki/Koumei to turn out to be Rum—in fact, he's one of my top candidates, at the moment—than Sakurako because he hasn't seen Shiho/Ai, while she has on two occasions (847–849/731–732 and 918–920/814–815). Though it must be said that, if Taka'aki/Koumei was Rum, you'd think he wouldn't just sit there and do nothing about the revelation that Shinichi/Conan is the brains behind Sleeping Kogoro, a man who Gin suspects may have gone after the Organization.

I certainly wouldn't mind him being one of the first characters (if not the first character) to be a suspect for the titular character of one arc, then to be a suspect for the titular character of another arc (subsequent arc or otherwise). While I think it'd be inevitable that pesky thing about him knowing true allegiances and secret identities would put him lower on the totem pole, in terms of who's the most likely suspect(s), I think his presence in the Bourbon Arc could really only help, not harm/hinder—it would provide more connections between the arcs, and better tie them together. Actually, he could still be Rum—all it would require is that accident that put him in a coma to have made him forgot what young Shiho looked like. What Shiho/Ai said in that scene from File 925/Episode 822 carries the implication that Rum would know what she looked like—that a certain accident only removed Rum's eye, not Rum's memory, as well. Believe me, I don't think he's going to turn out to be Rum—right now, he's not so high on my totem pole, in terms of who's the most likely suspect—but should he turn out to be, I could safely say that scene from File 925/Episode 822 didn't eliminate him from my list of Rum suspects, as I'm sure it did for others' lists. I think it's unwise to take that scene as definitive as you seem to be taking it—I find it unlikely that Gosho, before the resolution of an arc and the reveal of the identity of its titular character, would introduce a suspect and then rule him out within 15 Files/15 Episodes if their introduction. If anything, this is another issue created by Gosho's penchant for dangling plot threads—apart from that reference to him in File 925/Episode 822, we had to wait around 60 Files, after File 920, to see him, again. Yeah... that's hindsight bias, on my part—20/20 vision makes it a whole lot easier to look back. Hence why she should've been introduced in the 620s–630s/510s, not introduced in the 760s–770s/640s—same goes for Rei/Toru. Eh, I don't think Masumi's completely unaware of the BO—she must've known who Mary meant when she said, in File 952, "they get information about Koji Haneda, and arrive, as well." It's not like we're assuming she had an impassive reaction to her mother suddenly being 12–15. It's not as if we're assuming she was completely clueless as to why her family was moving about, or clueless as to why she and her mother keep switching hotels. If Mary knows anything about the BO—more than Masumi—it's because she'll turn out to be Elena's sister, and is keeping info from Masumi, like Shinichi/Conan keeps info from Shiho/Ai. At the very least, Masumi probably knows that secretive criminals were behind the apparent death of her father, and her mother being shrunk. Again, unless, Elena told Mary about some of the BO's structures, she knows nothing about that, unless she heard something when she was attacked and shrunk. You mean aside from, "Oh, this is a case that's been at least alluded to for 200 Files—and with Shuichi's family coming into plot prominence since Masumi's debut, it must be plot developing." She should've been more involved in Mystery Train, and actually involved in Scarlet Showdown. In the former case, it would've opened more options for Shinichi/Conan to deal with that situation, instead of relying on Kaito/Kid II, who just happened to be there—I think it would've made far more sense if she helped to fake Shiho's/Sherry's death than Kaito/Kid II doing so. And she shouldn't have been the only one who should've been involved in Scarlet Showdown—Shukichi and Mary should've been involved, as well. After all, the post-Mystery Train part of the Bourbon arc focused on them. And your example of this done right in DC? When immediate investment and the urge to continue met? And that's another sign of "sloppy plot setup," right? If so, how could Gosho have avoided this? He appeared immediately after Scarlet Showdown (said appearance landed him on the keyhole of Volume 85), then showed up, again, around 50 Files later. Unfortunately, those two appearances just don't provide enough data. Even Kanenori has more data for analysis than he does. Cause we already know, right? We want to move onto what this threat is going to do, right? So it's gotten too mysterious for too long—we've been kept out of it for too long—and, at this point, we're like Graham Chapman, yelling, "Get on with it!... GET ON WITH IT!!!" The end of 974 seemed to indicate that she didn't call him that because he made "ice cold b*tch" Shuichi laugh, but I don't know—maybe Shinichi/Conan is being slow, again, like he's been with this whole Akai family thing. But, if not, then I guess we still have a chance to figure out why... but even if we eventually do, we didn't get to see it in the flashback case when it was actually happening, in September, 2016. Yeah, robbers accidentally driving their car into the sea isn't too magical. Though, at least in theory, one has the potential to turn that not so magical premise into so much more, right? Don't forget Yusaku, and him going, "Even I can't solve this case with just pictu— ...... " We know all about Yusaku and Shuichi and how smart they are. What about Mary, Shukichi and Masumi? Not nearly as much action and character as they should've gotten, right?

Yeah, it isn't Gosho's style to straight up lie to our faces—he, rather, tries to utilize techniques like misdirection. Totally agree.

The Akai family part certainly wasn't in the cards back in '07—had it been, we probably wouldn't have had that year and a half plot break (September '09–February '11), and the Post-Mystery Train part (825–898/705–783) wouldn't have taken 2 years (July '12–June '14). It should've been Kir arc length (~120 Files) at the shortest, and probably shorter than Vermouth arc length (150–170 Files) at the longest. Shuichi's reintroduction/Subaru's introduction – 622–624/509–511 Rei's/Toru's non Scar-Akai introduction – 793–795/667–668 Gap – ~170 Files/~160 Episodes Yeah... this was pretty off. Bourbon Arc Act I – 622–704/509–581 Act II – 705–767/582–645 Act III – 768–824/646–704 Act IV – 825–898/705–783 Act III is by far the fastest paced of all the acts (if that's your word choice when you go beyond divvying up the overall story into arcs, and divvy up the arcs, themselves), and, even then, the Bourbon arc is so long, that the acts are, at least, around 60 Files. Rei/Toru and Masumi should've been introduced in Act I, when Shuichi/Subaru was (re)introduced... they were instead introduced in Act III. Masumi, thanks to her age, appearance and hints that she'd met Shinichi and Ran before—and thus knew who Shinichi/Conan was—was a dead ringer for another younger sibling of an intelligence agent, and so soon after the Kir arc. Thus, it was Shuichi/Subaru Vs. Rei/Toru, in terms of who was Bourbon... and with all those things about Shuichi/Subaru, well... a 203 File/196 Episode wait and a 277 File/275 Episode wait wasn't, to some (or even many), worth the answers to these mysteries. He could've certainly been introduced in the Red Wall case (682–686/558–561), though this may have lessened him as a suspect, as I presume (due to you comparing him to James) he would've been revealed to be Rei's/Toru's superior at the NPA, thus making him aware of not only Rei's/Toru's true allegiance, but Shuichi's survival, as well—and leaving him with the conclusion that Hidemi/Rena/Kir is, if not a NOC, a traitor to the BO—I find it very unlikely Rum would not take immediate action on both these pieces of knowledge, especially the latter. I personally think she was potentially involved as early as the Adultery case (856–858/740–741), since I see no reason for Masumi to take a picture of Shinichi/Conan, there, unless it was to show to Mary—unless it was a prelude to her showing him a picture of Mary (872–875/754–756). Thus, we have the non-Mary part of the Akai family subplot only really lasting from Mystery Train to the Adultery case (822–846/703–728)—you can include 768–821/646–702 (the period in which she was a Bourbon suspect), if you really care to—it's not a very long period, in terms of Masumi, if you ask me. Include Shukichi's intro, and it's only 3 Files/2 Episodes more, as the appearance of mid bro's hand comes the case after Mary's earliest potential involvement. Considering Chikara Katsumasa is one of my top Rum suspects, I expect that to be how Shukichi will be tied into the plot—beyond being the brother of someone who faked his death due to the BO, and the son of someone who ended up like Shinichi/Conan and Shiho/Ai due to the BO—maybe even put in danger, should Chikara Katsumasa turn out to be Rum. But in terms of tension in the Bourbon arc, relating to Shukichi? You're correct in that—and the "mystery?" Forget it. Maybe it should've been him who was kidnapped, instead of Yumi. Eh, in that one case, you can argue. She is to Shuichi and Shukichi (and Mary, even) what Shinichi is to Yusaku, in terms of why she and Shinichi ended up as smart as they now are. I'm still waiting for the origins of the "Guess I'm a bad girl, after all" thought (812–814/690–691). Wasn't expecting that case to be so short, either. Well, 2016 was a pretty good year for DC (being the year that brought about the latter two points), and we have File 1000 fast approaching (with 998 marking 100 Files since the Rum arc started, bringing us even closer to Kir arc length).

Keep in mind, I'll probably update that post with new ideas. Right—let's see... Maybe Shinichi/Conan and Shiho/Ai have an agreement—maybe she's agreed to tell him a certain thing or two about the BO (and he insisted she not tell him the obvious that he could've deduced—rather, he's looking for specific points of information he can actually act upon, if not in a manner befitting Reunion with the Black Organization (238–242/176–178) or Contact with the Black Organization (380–383/309–311), then in close range. In return, Shiho/Ai will either want in on his action (like in Reunion), perhaps because because she'll tell him about info relating to APTX, or she'll want him to have a cool down period of not going after the BO, after the action is over, and will punish him by lengthening his wait for info should he get too zealous, for her taste. Alternatively, Shinichi/Conan and Shiho/Ai could have a bi-weekly or monthly competition—it can be about anything (including masquerading as a school project, even), and the winner will get what they want, in terms of getting and using information to take action against the BO. So, naturally, Shinichi/Conan will want to do just that, should he win. Should Shiho/Ai win, however, he has to back off, and tell her about all the things he did behind her back (especially given his lack of communication with her, post-Kir arc, and especially post-Mystery Train (post-818–824/701–704)). Of course, either Shiho/Ai will not know who the Boss/Anokata is... or how about this? Maybe she has some idea—some stories to tell—that Shinichi/Conan can then deduce the Boss'/Anokata's identity from... and like with what she told him about Rum, it may not be enough info to figure out who they are, on its own... but it would be more for him (and us) to go on than ever before.