Chekhov MacGuffin

Part 2 You are mistaken in your certainty. It could have been from Amuro who was also following, or Vermouth on the bridge. Again, you are being more certain in your conclusions than the evidence warrants. Okiya's device could be a hands free bluetooth set linked to a phone, not a tap. And we have no idea who called who or why, so it's dangerous to make such definitive assumptions without evidence to back it. For all we know, one could be a wrong number and the other could have been pizza delivery telling them they couldn't deliver because no one answered the door. Akai would have taken it out of his car as a precaution against the police finding it later in case it failed to burn. Also it explains perfectly Sera's interest in Haibara as well as Conan. The FBI has made plenty of mistakes before, notably in the Vermouth arc. Also, Akai might very well keep it with his personal things if the picture was sentimental to him, as it is a picture of his dead girlfriend's younger sister whom he may have been asked to protect in a PS message, for example.

Part 1: I am going to be busy over the next few days so a reply will not be prompt if it happens at all. Which was my reason to point out that discounting a solution because it is "too easy" is not logical. Discount a theory because there are facts about it that are wrong. And testing Conan overtly and revealing she had collected a bunch of facts about him and the people around him would make her seem trustworthy and give Conan confidence in her in what way? Her actions seem stalkerish to me, which is what Conan told Hattori, and Hattori blabbed that thought out loud when he came over to visit. Fair enough. It's impossible for the vase case to be her motive for collecting the picture because it hadn't happened yet when Sera got the picture. She had collected it before the case as part of her information gathering on Haibara and was the one who originally told the Detective Boys the reflection existed. Why collect such a picture if you have a more useful database? It's going to be a pretty bad picture. It makes more sense in light of knowing that Haibara has been rather camera shy. If Sera is only using public databases like newspapers because that is all she has access to (i.e. no spiffy Black Org tech), Sera might be motivated to get even a bad image. ...after everything she did to make Conan as suspicious as possible of her by revealing she had basically info stalked him and everyone around him. If she was Black Org, she has the freedom to invent her back story as she wishes. Why not be a transfer student living in an apartment, or something like that? As Bourbon, living in a hotel means she deliberately chose a less safe option for no reason. It makes it unnecessarily more difficult. Even a temporary apartment would be better. Each time though, said new organization was hinted to exist multiple times. The American Jodie mentioned "The Bureau" stands for the FBI, and then Akai was seen with the FBI guy in NY. The Kir arc revolved around "The Company" and hints about what that was. Nothing similar has shown up this time; all the normal hints are missing. Are you saying Sera is hallucinating? And besides, why would Bourbon's conviction be swayed by something so minor after Gin basically said the Bourbon has enough faith in his own ego that he is willing to easily discount an assassination directed by one Organization's most trusted members? Also, who is reminding her Akai is dead? Gin isn't in contact with Bourbon. She hasn't chatted with the FBI about the topic. No one is crying in front of her about Akai's death... I'm not sure where you are trying to go with this point since it seems to contradict your argument, but Sera obviously did a lot of research ahead of time on Conan. She knew his name, and that he was a good detective. She knew Ran by sight, and that she was a karate champion. She asked Kogoro point blank if Conan is always at his side when he solves cases, which means she has been studying the Mouri cases with enough attention to detail to notice this. She knew about Professor Agasa ahead of time and that he was close with Conan. She knew Haibara was staying with professor Agasa and a bit about her appearance. Although Sera was deleting a picture of Haibara from her computer at the time, it could be interpreted as a general comment that while data is easy to erase, it is much harder to erase traces of someone in real life. By implication that would reveal she is interested in someone who had been "erased", like Akai for example.

I have two golden rules for solving mysteries which have brought me much success1. Assume things how they are told unless there are contradictions that indicate otherwise 2. Assume the simplest solution that accounts for the evidence You're afraid of being tricked, so you assume a more complicated solution. It's unnecessary. I have never had to change my theories once, even as new characters appeared and interacted because I stuck to the most basic idea the evidence covered. There are hints besides the Gundam names that hint Tohru has a darker way of doing things. He almost let an innocent suspect destroy the evidence exonerating him in order to test Kogoro. He noticed Conan disappeared at the same time as a murderer and said nothing until everyone else noticed. It is little things like that that make him different than Sera, who in order to test Conan, basically revealed the entire solution except for one little detail, so even if Conan failed, she could correct it herself, or she could guide one of the detectives to the correct solution. As for Sera, if she were a member of the Black Organization she would be more cautious in front of Conan and speaking about how much she knew in front of Mouri Kogoro. Besides the picture of Haibara reflected in Agasa's glasses, she also revealed she had information that she collected previously on Agasa (knew about Agasa is advance of his introduction) [771.4]. She revealed that she had done research on the professor to Kogoro and Ran. Also, she overtly tested Conan's deductive abilities in her introductory case. If she feared Conan because he is against the Black organization, she would have concealed that she knew who he was [768.16] and what he was capable of [769.4] in advance to ensure she had an advantage and would have also been more subtle about testing Conan's abilities to avoid making him realize that she was testing him. She wouldn't nearly directly ask if Conan was the brains behind Kogoro either.[771.4] You said Sera might get around to killing Sherry. If Sera was a loyal member of the Black Organization, she should have identified Ai was Sherry and have reported or eliminated her. As a new member, bringing in Sherry would have gained her approval and prestige, and with the favor comes more ability to do what one desires, like use resources to look for Akai. She also deleted the information she collected on Haibara. If she was a target, deleting the info doesn't make sense, even if she isn't going to do anything to Haibara right away. Also a hotel is not a very secure base of operations for a BO agent. People can enter and exit as they please as long as they have a card, which can be used to break in if copied or if Sera is impersonated. Why not use a better backstory so she work from a residence that provides more security for one's personal belongings? Why does Tohru need to find Bourbon? What is his role? What is this other organization? What are its goals? Considering we are pretty much at the end of the Bourbon arc, the answers should have been put as clues in the manga somewhere. Someone else made this point and I would like to credit them for it, but if Sera was Bourbon, after she chased Scar Akai, why would she say/think the following lines "I- I thought I saw someone I knew... There is no way though is there" That seems to be strongly implying that she thinks there is no way she could have seen Akai, but Bourbon thinks Akai must be alive because the only one who could kill Akai is him. There was an entire case that took place in the past which gave really important clues that Shinichi met Vermouth before, like the serial killer and the Angel thing... All of this was well before Vermouth's reveal. Nothing like that has happened in this arc, and we are quickly running out of time. Sayla wasn't Char's enemy although she was certainty conflicted by him wanting to kill Amuro. She loved him, and tried to keep the Federation from attacking him several times. Why did she approach Conan then in the first place? She seemed to know a lot, had done the research on all the people close to Conan, and asks the same kinds of questions Eisuke did when he was trying to confirm Conan is Shinichi. Nowhere does it suggest she knows Haibara is a target of the Black Organization. Sure she finds Haibara interesting for some reason (explained below), but I don't see evidence for Sera even knowing anything about the Black Organization.In case you are wondering why I think Sera finds Conan and Haibara interesting, it is because she got this picture when it was inadvertently sent home with Akai's things after he died. She traced those pictured as best she could because she wanted to figure out why Akai died (or if he is really dead.) Okiya followed Jodie as she was in the department store (and may have left her the warning on the coaster), stopped her from chasing Scar Akai into the scope of the BO, and that was after he went to check out Teito bank because he saw Scar Akai on the news. Okiya can't do much about Scar Akai anyhow, not knowing where he is going to pop up next. The best he can do is to keep a close eye on Haibara... and then we saw those listening devices a while later.I already have an explanation about why Okiya would be worried about Sera, knowing she is her sister.

And part 2. I think Vermouth's promise is like this, but with Bourbon being Amuro instead. I have already pointed out the problems with a non BO Scar Akai. What organization is this that would be aligned with the FBI, yet willingly endanger Kir for no reason I can figure out? So far, The FBI and CIA are the only organizations that have been involved with the fight against the Black Org. Gosho dropped several hints about both of them several times before their presence was officially revealed so people following the clues wouldn't be surprised. Gosho has has given no clues towards another organization's involvement in this arc, and I have been keeping careful watch. I think it's going to be the opposite.

Part 1 of reply, because I am only allowed so many quote blocks... There needs to be some more explanation here. Tohru fits the bill for Bourbon in a lot of ways, and admitting he is Akai's long time rival fits Bourbon than another role. So what cover is this? If he is allied with Akai, why would an FBI aligned person ignore the Black Organization? It doesn't make sense. No ally of the FBI would wander around in the open dressed as Akai. It puts Kir at risk, who is extremely valuable infowise - she was worth getting Akai "killed" for. It also puts civilians at risk as the red shirts case demonstrated with the potential of sniping Scar Akai in a crowd. Also why would someone disguise as Akai anyway and show up around the FBI? It doesn't make sense. It';s a stupid idea. This is a single-sided interpretation of her line. Sera thoughts was that she knew Conan was a huge fan of Holmes, on par with Shinichi, for a long time. This could easily be referring to research she had been doing before getting to Japan to figure out Conan's identity, exactly like Eisuke. Like Eisuke, if she thinks Conan had something to do with her brother's disappearance, which is likely, then she, who is a smart as Hondou, could come to the same conclusion. I have no idea what you are talking about. Akai. I don't think they met before the current timeline. How do you come to this conclusion? If she was Bourbon wouldn't Haibara be her primary target, not Conan? Why hasn't she taken a move against Haibara then?

It's obvious because this is the final hint, like Eisuke's leukemia and Jodie's memories of Vermouth. If you didn't get it before then, then those clues should put you on the right track for sure. Good to see you have came over from the dark side, Glass Heart. +1 for the moshpit.

Nothing has been mentioned about earlier or later versions.

She wasn't actually trying to stab him, just scare him into losing his hiccups. He then turned the knife on her.

Apparently the handling is supposed to be.... well ... trying to put it nicely.... bad.Maybe he was trying to counter his good driving through a handicap so no one would notice...

I did some research on the Subaru 360 for Okiya. 25 horsepower, 0-50 in 37 seconds... I think Akai must have been aiming for the idea that no one would think he'd actually drive one. I'm impressed he even managed to keep up in the car chase. It must have been really slow. Or else he upgraded it like mad.

I think Gosho had a contingency plan for an early end. Sherry was introduced in the chapter Akemi died as a silhouette showing Gosho had her in mind for a very long while and could use her if he was forced to end early. If you look at Okino Yoko, she had three cigarettes and a statue of liberty lighter in her apartment although she was never shown smoking since. Personally, I think she was supposed to be Vermouth, but then Gosho decided to recreate Vermouth as Chris/Sharon Vineyard when he realized he didn't have to rush because his ratings were good. Okino became a plain spare character.

That's the current idea. There may be something else they both have in common that is the underlying reason why they shrank, but Haibara has offered no theories why they lived and the others died.

It's in the blue link in my signature, under the section labelled "Vermouth/Chris Vineyard/Sharon Vineyard/Sharon’s mother and Sharon's husband"

Just got the file. I came to the same conclusion that it was hiccups and pregnancy like most everyone else did. The cup and sugar and the threatening with the knife was to clear the hiccups, hence the "did it stop". For those not in the know, the three major hiccup remedies are a glass of water, a lump of sugar, and the shock of being frightened. Edit: holding your breath is also well known, so make that four. The health email and the heart at the end, the tiredness and sluggishness, the change in personality and irritability, the clothes, and the vomiting are the pregnancy clues. It's nice not having to lay out a big deduction this week because everyone else did the work.

I find it hilarious I am currently working up a post exactly at this moment to reply to a user named "Lol" who argues the 'Akai faked his death' theory isn't right. Lol, if you are reading this, you better prepare yourself, because I am not going to lose.

This is probably the reason. I see Kaito and Aoko with a red scarf as your post avatar and a Christmas themed Kaito and Aoko in your main profile.

The BO had a death list of people who had been poisoned with APTX. It was shown when Sherry discussed searching Kudo's hoise to confirm his death. There were quite a few names visible on it. Also Sherry took the APTX to commit suicide, and she expected to die. That was after the BO started using APTX to kill people and had Sherry with a team check Shinichi's house twice, so I am pretty sure she would know how it affected most people. Shiho mentioned shrinking as a rare effect that happened to one mouse, while most of her mice just died, so that strongly implies most people simply keel over without physical transformation.

There are only two pictures because it is much earlier than normal for spoilers and this spoiler originated from a different-than-usual source. We are five/six days off the file release date. More spoilers will come in a few days from the usual people.

The position of the 4 headlights might be useful to narrow it down

The red one is Sato's RX-7 shown above. The other one... No idea. I think it's Takagi's...