Bourbon

[Chekhov MacGuffin 1089]

- Okiya is not Akai.

- Okiya is not Bourbon, either.

- Between Amuro and Sera, I suspect Sera more.

You should fix your vote then. You are still registered under Okiya is Bourbon.

What makes you think Okiya is Akai? LOL

We'll see...

Well there is this really long and rather popular theory...

[Charala97 23]

What makes you think Okiya is Akai? LOL

We'll see...

Check out the wiki pages on Okiya and Akai. You'll find many convincing theories! Yeah.... we'll see

[cellinara 0]

i feel that masumi sera is akai in disguise as the eyes are same what do u think ??

[Shohane 1]

Just like back then when everyone thought Jodie = Vermouth.....

[Chekhov MacGuffin 1089]

Just like back then when everyone thought Jodie = Vermouth.....

Not me. :cool:

[User 4869 100]

Not me. :cool:

You got Vermouth arc right, too? So Kir's is pretty easy isn't it. I looking to ask you for a long time but don't have appropriate opportunity.

I ask so people will know you success rate and choose to believe or not on your theory rather than looking at the theories alone.

[Scar Akai 65]

You got Vermouth arc right, too? So Kir's is pretty easy isn't it. I looking to ask you for a long time but don't have appropriate opportunity.

I ask so people will know you success rate and choose to believe or not on your theory rather than looking at the theories alone.

Which DC fan won't believe his theories? Lol

[Chekhov MacGuffin 1089]

Which DC fan won't believe his theories? Lol

I find it hilarious I am currently working up a post exactly at this moment to reply to a user named "Lol" who argues the 'Akai faked his death' theory isn't right. Lol, if you are reading this, you better prepare yourself, because I am not going to lose.

[Detective Kudo 28]

Which DC fan won't believe his theories? Lol

haha! i think chek is a she, just a theory though

[Scar Akai 65]

I find it hilarious I am currently working up a post exactly at this moment to reply to a user named "Lol" who argues the 'Akai faked his death' theory isn't right. Lol, if you are reading this, you better prepare yourself, because I am not going to lose.

Well, if you lose, it's gonna be news! lol.

[Glass Heart 34]

My new theory now that chapters 800 and 801 have brought some new elements:

So, like Chekhow would have guessed, Subaru Okiya is indeed Shuichi Akai. He would have gone undercover to protect Rena Mizunashi. Conan helps him to hide and, at the same time, Subaru watches after Haibara and him. Haibara is weary of him because she used to know him as a BO member (under the name Dai Moroboshi) and as the one who caused her sister's death, explaining why she has this weird feeling when he's around sometimes.

When Subaru/Akai saw someone looking like him, he comes to investigate. Naturally, he would think of a trap set by a BO member against him, but it could also be something else and, in that case, Rena would become suspectful to the eyes of the Black Organization. In that case, he would have to improvise something before everything goes out of control.

Seeing Scar Akai, Subaru is able to identify him as Tooru Amuro, his longtime deadly rival. While they don't like each other, Tooru is not part of the Black Organization so Subaru lets him go. If he has tried to stop him, it could have destroyed both their covers and he also had to prevented Jodie from doing it. Tooru's goal is in fact to bring Bourbon in the city by making it look like that Akai as survived, but Tooru himself might ignore that Akai is indeed still alive. He even ignores Bourbon's true identity and his physical appearance.

Gin tries to investigate this matter, but he is called off by Vermouth and the boss because someone else is in charge of this case (Bourbon) and this agent doesn't want Gin in his way.

Masumi Sera comes to the city where Scar Akai has appeared. She has some past with Shinichi and Ran, implying during her appearances that she knows Shinichi from a long time ago. She knows several facts about him and she met or she has heard of the professor.

She makes several allusions about her mother to Ran but she is in fact talking to Shinichi (she isn't supposed to know Conan), explaining why Ran doesn't get it at all. The problem being that Conan doesn't get it too, but he still admits that the girl reminds him of someone. He could have known her well but thought she was a boy at the time, thus being unable to identify her. Her attitude toward Conan is very friendly, so I suspect they knew each other very well as children, maybe thanks to their parents.

Being Bourbon, Masumi would have seen Akai appear on the news, explaining why she came back to Japan with this timing. She would have a past with Akai, explaining why she hates him, but she would ignore that Shinichi and him know each other.

While knowing that Conan and Shinichi are one and the same, she isn't able to explain it (the organization ignore the effects of the Apotoxine) and she tries to investigate it, at first suspecting that the professor might have something to do with it. She is able to collect several informations, the more important being that the professor hides a girl called Haibara whose attitude is also very mature, leading her to think she could also be an adult (her interest to Haibara is implied at the end of the Youtube case).

During her investigations, Subaru spots her and, from that moment, he becomes extremely careful, often spying on the professor's house and following the detective boys, making his attitude really suspectful. But, for some reason, he hasn't intervene to stop her yet.

Vermouth might know the secret of their youth so she passes a deal with Bourbon: Masumi learns about the Apotoxine and the association between Conan and Akai, but in exchange she must promise she wouldn't report anything to the other members, her main target being Akai, to protect Shinichi.

Being Shinichi's friend, Masumi abides to the deal, but knowing about the link between Conan and Akai makes her even more interested by the young boy and the people surrounding him, suspecting that Conan could have lend his help to Akai. At this time, she has already join his close circle of acquaintances.

By this time, Tooru, who has previously met Kogoro Mouri under his Scar Akai disguise, meets the band again and becomes interested by something about Sleeping Kogoro, leading him to ask to become his assistant.

When Conan is kidnapped, everyone comes to the rescue. On Bourbon's part, Masumi wants to save Conan but she is also interested by this new man surrounding the Mouri's agency, thinking it might be Akai.

During the car chase, many things happen:

-Haibara begins to suspect that Subaru Okiya is in fact Dai Moroboshi (the name under which she knows Shuichi Akai).

-Haibara feels an aura similar to the BO members behind Subaru's car: it was Masumi on her bike. This is the first time those two characters are closed, having not met each other actually. Maybe Haibara knows her from the time when she was Shiho Miyano (it's a possibility).

-Subaru tries to shoot in the wheels of the kidnapper's car. He is stopped when his eyes and Tooru's meet each other's, meaning Tooru may have identify him at this occasion. Subaru lets Tooru save Conan but he was prevented at the last moment by Masumi. Tooru and Masumi know each other (maybe in a friendly or even in a romantic way) but he clearly didn't expected her to be here, leading him to wonder if she might be Bourbon as a matter of fact.

At this point, Masumi is contacted by Vermouth while Tooru is contacted at the exact same time by his own organization (from which we don't know anything yet, except that it's neither the FBI or the Black Organization). Subaru is pirating Masumi's communication, hearing everything Vermouth tells to her.

Tooru arranges to be questioned away from Masumi, evading before she could spot him. The next day, he takes a break from the Café Poirot to spy on her, based on his newfound suspicions that she might be Bourbon's real identity. Until this point, maybe he didn't even thought that he would have to take that persona again, but it would be too dangerous for him to spy on her while his true identity. Masumi and him know each other and she could easily recognize him.

On her end, Masumi continues to act like nothing happened, trying to get informations about Haibara (maybe she will try something against her once her main mission is complete) and still wanting to meet Kogoro's new apprentice (she hasn't seen him, thinking he might be Akai. At that moment, she spots someone looking like Akai (Tooru/Scar Akai) and she runs after him (this moment confirmes that she knows him).

What could happen after that:

-The meeting between Haibara and Masumi might trigger something.

-Tooru will try to avoid meeting Sera.

-Tooru is more interested to investigate Sera (Bourbon) than to investigate Subaru (Akai), but maybe they will see each other later. Even though they're deadly rivals, they could work together to bring down their common enemy (like Amuro Ray and Quatro Bajeena (Char Aznable) did in Zeta Gundam).

-Subaru/Akai probably knows everything there is to know at this point.

-Even though they may be friends (even if Shinichi doesn't know it yet), Conan and Bourbon are still enemies so a confrontation between Conan and Masumi will ultimately come.

Now, for the detective game (because that's the subject of the Vermouth's arc):

-Conan tries to understand who is who. His real identity is Shinichi Kudo. His friend Ai Haibara's real identity is Shiho Miyano (meaning Conan has two secret identities to protect).

-Subaru leads some investigations for the security of Conan and his friends and his own. His real identity is Shuichi Akai.

-Masumi investigates everything: Shinichi/Conan, Haibara, Akai, Kogoro's new apprentice... Masumi is Bourbon's real identity.

-Tooru investigates Bourbon's real identity, maybe without actually knowing that Akai was indeed still alive until they saw each other during the car chase. Tooru occasionnally hides his identity under the Scar Akai persona.

So, my answers:

What is Bourbon's identity?

Sera Masumi

What is Bourbon's real assignment? (multiple choice)

Find and kill Akai

-> Main assignment

Find and kill Sherry

-> Optional. She might do it after.

Investigate Conan/Shinichi's true identity and kill him if necessary

-> Optional. Normally, she should have to do it if she has confirmation that Shinichi is Conan (which she already know by the way), but...

Bourbon doesn't want to do his assignment for personal reasons (e.g. sympathy)

-> Masumi and Shinichi are friends from a long time ago and, even though she has to investigate him, she doesn't want him to be killed (and she has also made the promise to Vermouth that she won't do anything to him).

[Chekhov MacGuffin 1089]

Part 1 of reply, because I am only allowed so many quote blocks...

Seeing Scar Akai, Subaru is able to identify him as Tooru Amuro, his longtime deadly rival. While they don't like each other, Tooru is not part of the Black Organization so Subaru lets him go.

There needs to be some more explanation here. Tohru fits the bill for Bourbon in a lot of ways, and admitting he is Akai's long time rival fits Bourbon than another role.

If he has tried to stop him, it could have destroyed both their covers and he also had to prevented Jodie from doing it. Tooru's goal is in fact to bring Bourbon in the city by making it look like that Akai as survived, but Tooru himself might ignore that Akai is indeed still alive.

So what cover is this?

He might even ignore Bourbon's true identity and his physical appearance.

If he is allied with Akai, why would an FBI aligned person ignore the Black Organization? It doesn't make sense.

Gin tries to investigate this matter, but he is called off by Vermouth and the boss because someone else is in charge of this case (Bourbon) and this agent doesn't want Gin in his way.

No ally of the FBI would wander around in the open dressed as Akai. It puts Kir at risk, who is extremely valuable infowise - she was worth getting Akai "killed" for. It also puts civilians at risk as the red shirts case demonstrated with the potential of sniping Scar Akai in a crowd. Also why would someone disguise as Akai anyway and show up around the FBI? It doesn't make sense. It';s a stupid idea.

She has some past with Shinichi and Ran, implying during her appearances that she knows Shinichi from a long time ago. She knows several facts about him and she met or she has heard of the professor.

This is a single-sided interpretation of her line. Sera thoughts was that she knew Conan was a huge fan of Holmes, on par with Shinichi, for a long time. This could easily be referring to research she had been doing before getting to Japan to figure out Conan's identity, exactly like Eisuke. Like Eisuke, if she thinks Conan had something to do with her brother's disappearance, which is likely, then she, who is a smart as Hondou, could come to the same conclusion.

She makes several allusions about her mother to Ran but she is in fact talking to Shinichi (she isn't supposed to know Conan), explaining why Ran doesn't get it at all.

I have no idea what you are talking about.

The problem being that Conan doesn't get it too, but he still admits that the girl reminds him of someone.

Akai.

He could have known her well but thought she was a boy at the time, thus being unable to identify her. Her attitude toward Conan is very friendly, so I suspect they knew each other very well as children, maybe thanks to their parents.

I don't think they met before the current timeline.

Being Bourbon, Masumi would have seen Akai appear on the news, explaining why she came back to Japan with this timing. She would have a past with Akai, explaining why she hates him, but she would ignore that Shinichi and him know each other.

How do you come to this conclusion?

While knowing that Conan and Shinichi are one and the same, she isn't able to explain it (the organization ignore the effects of the Apotoxine) and she tries to investigate it, at first suspecting that the professor might have something to do with it. She is able to collect several informations, the more important being that the professor hides a girl called Haibara whose attitude is also very mature, leading her to think she could also be an adult (her interest to Haibara is implied at the end of the Youtube case).

If she was Bourbon wouldn't Haibara be her primary target, not Conan? Why hasn't she taken a move against Haibara then?

[Chekhov MacGuffin 1089]

And part 2.

Vermouth might know the secret of their youth so she passes a deal with Bourbon: Masumi learns about the Apotoxine and the association between Conan and Akai, but in exchange she must promise she wouldn't report anything to the other members, her main target being Akai, to protect Shinichi.

I think Vermouth's promise is like this, but with Bourbon being Amuro instead.

By this time, Tooru, who has previously met Kogoro Mouri under his Scar Akai disguise, meets the band again and becomes interested by something about Sleeping Kogoro, leading him to ask to become his assistant.

I have already pointed out the problems with a non BO Scar Akai.

At this point, Masumi is contacted by Vermouth while Tooru is contacted at the exact same time by his own organization (from which we don't know anything yet, except that it's neither the FBI of the Black Organization). Subaru is pirating Masumi's communication, hearing everything Vermouth tells to her.

What organization is this that would be aligned with the FBI, yet willingly endanger Kir for no reason I can figure out? So far, The FBI and CIA are the only organizations that have been involved with the fight against the Black Org. Gosho dropped several hints about both of them several times before their presence was officially revealed so people following the clues wouldn't be surprised. Gosho has has given no clues towards another organization's involvement in this arc, and I have been keeping careful watch.

-Tooru will try to avoid meeting Sera.

I think it's going to be the opposite.

[Glass Heart 34]

There needs to be some more explanation here. Tohru fits the bill for Bourbon in a lot of ways, and admitting he is Akai's long time rival fits Bourbon, not some random guy.

Tohru fits the bill too much, I think. And, even though the Gundam names imply a strong rivality between the two, that doesn't necessarily mean that he is Bourbon. The Gundam names, which are apparent, might be part of Aoyama's trick.

So what cover is this?

Akai's cover as Subaru and Tooru's cover as Scar Akai. Tooru ignores that Akai is still alive, but he poses as him to make it appears so in order to attract Bourbon (whose Tooru doesn't know the true identity).

Bourbon hates Akai more than anyone else in the world and he doesn't believe that he's dead while everyone else think he is. He would jump to any possibility to confirm his suspicions if he has the chance. Tooru/Scar Akai uses that to lure him, as a bait.

Now, for Akai, revealing himself to stop Tooru would mean exposing their true identities to the eyes of the Black Organization and he needs to stay hidden in order to protect Rena. So he could not intervene and he even had to prevent Jodie from stopping Scar Akai.

If he is allied with Akai, why would an FBI aligned person ignore the Black organization? It doesn't make sense.

I think Tooru is part of another organization. I never said he was the FBI aligned or Akai's ally (I even said he thought him to be dead).

But, on the other hand, he is quiet happy to have attracted the Black Organization's attention because that means that the bait works and that Bourbon is likely going to search for Akai in the city.

No ally of the FBI would wander around in the open dressed as Akai. It puts Kir at risk, who is extremely valuable infowise - she was worth getting Akai "killed" for. It also puts civilians at risk as the red shirts case demonstrated. Also why would someone disguise as Akai anyway and show up around the FBI? It doesn't make sense.

The way I think it, Tooru isn't linked to the FBI (he's part of another organization) and so it's likely he doesn't know anything about the arrangements between the FBI and Rena Mizunashi. And even if he did, would he care ?

So he has no reason to refrain himself from the Scar Akai persona, he has everything to gain from it.

As for appearing in front of the FBI, I didn't thought of that, but now that you make me remember it, it makes me think of something: he doesn't know how to attract the Black Organization, so he appears in front of FBI members. The two groups being at odds, there is a huge possibility that the BO spies on the FBI members, meaning he could attract the men in black attention (and especially Bourbon's attention) that way. It makes some sense.

For the civilians, I don't know if he even cares. His organization could be a criminal one.

This is a single-sided of her line. Sera thought's was that she knew Conan was a huge fan of Holmes, on par with Shinichi, for a long time, but this could be referring to research she had been doing before getting to Japan to figure out Conan's identity, exactly like Eisuke. Like Eisuke, if she thinks Conan had something to do with her brother's disappearance, which is likely, then she, who is a smart as Hondou, could come to the same conclusion.

That's a possibility (and, as you said, Aoyama actually used it), but mine is also. All there is to know is how the dialogues must be understood in their real context and we will know that with the resolution.

I have no idea what you are talking about.

It's easy: Shinichi and Masumi knew each other but Shinichi doesn't remember her. As Masumi isn't supposed to know Conan (Shinichi's child form), she makes it like she speaks to ran, while she gave the clues about her mother's bug breasts to Conan (which is near).

Akai.

Or the Masumi Sera that Shinichi once knew. But maybe he didn't even know she was a girl at that time, maybe he thought she was a boy (the manga Family Compo, about a family of transexuals where the daughter changes her sexe freely every year, made me thought of that).

I don't think they met before the current timeline.

But the possibility exists. It already happened with Vermouth.

How do you come to this conclusion?

It's a theory, but based on some elements:

-Masumi Sera know Akai (confirmed during chapter 801 where she chases after him). If she is Bourbon, then their past is not a good one (while whe can also be Akai's sister but having reasons to hate him, like Sayla Mass was among Char's enemy).

-Bourbon hates Akai more than anyone else in the world.

-Scar Akai's appearances attract the attention of the Black Organization (even more if he appears on the news), so likely Bourbon's attention too.

-Masumi Sera appears sometimes after Scar Akai's appearance in front of the Black Organization and their called-off.

-She has no mean to know that Conan and Akai worked together. And, except for Vermouth who said nothing to protect Conan and Kir which is a double-agent, no one among the Black Organization agents know that the FBI was helped by a kid with glasses.

If she was Bourbon wouldn't Haibara be fer primary target, not Conan? Why hasn't she taken a move against Haibara then?

She investigates Haibara, but her prime target is Shuichi Akai. If she wants to do anything to Haibara, she has to wait until she has completed her real assignment (identify and eliminate Akai), otherwise she might lose the chance to kill Akai if she exposes herself to soon.

But Subaru appears to fear for Haibara's safety since Masumi has appeared, and the end of the Youtube case confirmed she was investigating her. It even confirms that she knows Haibara is a target for the Black Organization, something only the FBI, the Black Organization, Conan, the professor and maybe Shinichi's parents and Hattori could have known of. So it's likely she's closely linked either to the FBI (but she doesn't appear to be one of their agents and I doubt that Akai would share those details even with his supposed sister) or the Black Organization.

As for Jack Black's reaction to her picture, it's obvious he knows her, but maybe only as Akai's sister. The FBI doesn't know Bourbon's true identity.

In fact, the only one who likely knows Bourbon's true identity is Akai. And he is clearly more worried about Masumi's being around Conan and his friends than he is with Scar Akai/Amuro.

[Glass Heart 34]

Same problem: too many blocks. I have to post the second part of the reply as a separate message. Sorry !

I have already pointed out the problems with a non BO Scar Akai.

Maybe, but I don't remember it just like that. What is the problem ?

What organization is this that would be aligned with the FBI, yet willingly endanger Kir for no reason I can figure out? So far, The FBI and CIA are the only organizations that have been involved with the fight against the Black Org. Gosho dropped several hints about both of them several times before their presence was officially revealed so people following the clues wouldn't be surprised. Gosho has has given no clues towards another organization's involvement in this arc, and I have been keeping careful watch.

Tooru is not FBI so I don't see how he could no anything about their arrangments with Kir. And it can even be a criminal organization As for another organization, the FBI was revealed during the resolution of Kir's arc and the clues weren't really explicit until then.

But the possibility exists: during Vermouth's phone call. I don't see why she would call anyone else than Kir. If I think that Subaru/Akai is in fact pirating Bourbon's phone to spy on their communications, the last character is likely receiving a call from someone else at that precise moment (confusing the reader about who Vermouth is really talking too). And I think the one who calls is someone from that third organization which I think Tooru is part of.

I think it's going to be the opposite.

Maybe after she sees him, but for the moment that's more like the contrary. I think Tooru has taken his Scar Akai persona once more not because he was testing Sera but because he needed to hide his real face from her. He doesn't want her to recognize him.

[Chekhov MacGuffin 1089]

Tohru fits the bill too much, I think. And, even though the Gundam names imply a strong rivality between the two, that doesn't necessarily mean that he is Bourbon. The Gundam names, which are apparent, might be part of Aoyama's trick.

I have two golden rules for solving mysteries which have brought me much success

1. Assume things how they are told unless there are contradictions that indicate otherwise

2. Assume the simplest solution that accounts for the evidence

You're afraid of being tricked, so you assume a more complicated solution. It's unnecessary. I have never had to change my theories once, even as new characters appeared and interacted because I stuck to the most basic idea the evidence covered.

There are hints besides the Gundam names that hint Tohru has a darker way of doing things. He almost let an innocent suspect destroy the evidence exonerating him in order to test Kogoro. He noticed Conan disappeared at the same time as a murderer and said nothing until everyone else noticed. It is little things like that that make him different than Sera, who in order to test Conan, basically revealed the entire solution except for one little detail, so even if Conan failed, she could correct it herself, or she could guide one of the detectives to the correct solution.

As for Sera, if she were a member of the Black Organization she would be more cautious in front of Conan and speaking about how much she knew in front of Mouri Kogoro. Besides the picture of Haibara reflected in Agasa's glasses, she also revealed she had information that she collected previously on Agasa (knew about Agasa is advance of his introduction) [771.4]. She revealed that she had done research on the professor to Kogoro and Ran. Also, she overtly tested Conan's deductive abilities in her introductory case. If she feared Conan because he is against the Black organization, she would have concealed that she knew who he was [768.16] and what he was capable of [769.4] in advance to ensure she had an advantage and would have also been more subtle about testing Conan's abilities to avoid making him realize that she was testing him. She wouldn't nearly directly ask if Conan was the brains behind Kogoro either.[771.4]

You said Sera might get around to killing Sherry. If Sera was a loyal member of the Black Organization, she should have identified Ai was Sherry and have reported or eliminated her. As a new member, bringing in Sherry would have gained her approval and prestige, and with the favor comes more ability to do what one desires, like use resources to look for Akai. She also deleted the information she collected on Haibara. If she was a target, deleting the info doesn't make sense, even if she isn't going to do anything to Haibara right away.

Also a hotel is not a very secure base of operations for a BO agent. People can enter and exit as they please as long as they have a card, which can be used to break in if copied or if Sera is impersonated. Why not use a better backstory so she work from a residence that provides more security for one's personal belongings?

Akai's cover as Subaru and Tooru's cover as Scar Akai. Tooru ignores that Akai is still alive, but he poses as him to make it appears so in order to attract Bourbon (whose Tooru doesn't know the true identity). Bourbon hates Akai more than anyone else in the world and he doesn't believe that he's dead while everyone else think he is. He would jump to any possibility to confirm his suspicions if he has the chance. Tooru/Scar Akai uses that to lure him, as a bait. I think Tooru is part of another organization. I never said he was the FBI aligned or Akai's ally (I even said he thought him to be dead). But, on the other hand, he is quiet happy to have attracted the Black Organization's attention because that means that the bait works and that Bourbon is likely going to search for Akai in the city.

Why does Tohru need to find Bourbon? What is his role? What is this other organization? What are its goals? Considering we are pretty much at the end of the Bourbon arc, the answers should have been put as clues in the manga somewhere.

Or the Masumi Sera that Shinichi once knew. But maybe he didn't even know she was a girl at that time, maybe he thought she was a boy.

Someone else made this point and I would like to credit them for it, but if Sera was Bourbon, after she chased Scar Akai, why would she say/think the following lines "I- I thought I saw someone I knew... There is no way though is there" That seems to be strongly implying that she thinks there is no way she could have seen Akai, but Bourbon thinks Akai must be alive because the only one who could kill Akai is him.

But the possibility exists. It already happened with Vermouth.

There was an entire case that took place in the past which gave really important clues that Shinichi met Vermouth before, like the serial killer and the Angel thing... All of this was well before Vermouth's reveal. Nothing like that has happened in this arc, and we are quickly running out of time.

-Masumi Sera know Akai (confirmed during chapter 801 where she chases after him). If she is Bourbon, then their past is not a good one (while whe can also be Akai's sister but having reasons to hate him, like Sayla Mass was among Char's enemy)

Sayla wasn't Char's enemy although she was certainty conflicted by him wanting to kill Amuro. She loved him, and tried to keep the Federation from attacking him several times.

-She has no mean to know that Conan and Akai worked together. And, except for Vermouth who said nothing to protect Conan and Kir which is a double-agent, no one among the Black Organization agents know that the FBI was helped by a kid with glasses.

Why did she approach Conan then in the first place? She seemed to know a lot, had done the research on all the people close to Conan, and asks the same kinds of questions Eisuke did when he was trying to confirm Conan is Shinichi.

But Subaru appears to fear for Haibara's safety since Masumi has appeared, and the end of the Youtube case confirmed she was investigating her. It even confirms that she knows Haibara is a target for the Black Organization, something only the FBI, the Black Organization, Conan, the professor and maybe Shinichi's parents and Hattori could have known of.

Nowhere does it suggest she knows Haibara is a target of the Black Organization. Sure she finds Haibara interesting for some reason (explained below), but I don't see evidence for Sera even knowing anything about the Black Organization.

In case you are wondering why I think Sera finds Conan and Haibara interesting, it is because she got this picture when it was inadvertently sent home with Akai's things after he died. She traced those pictured as best she could because she wanted to figure out why Akai died (or if he is really dead.)

In fact, the only one who likely knows Bourbon's true identity is Akai. And he is clearly more worried about Masumi's being around Conan and his friends than he is with Scar Akai/Amuro.

Okiya followed Jodie as she was in the department store (and may have left her the warning on the coaster), stopped her from chasing Scar Akai into the scope of the BO, and that was after he went to check out Teito bank because he saw Scar Akai on the news. Okiya can't do much about Scar Akai anyhow, not knowing where he is going to pop up next. The best he can do is to keep a close eye on Haibara... and then we saw those listening devices a while later.

I already have an explanation about why Okiya would be worried about Sera, knowing she is her sister.

[Glass Heart 34]

I have two golden rules for solving mysteries which have brought me much success

1. Assume things how they are told unless there is contradictions that indicates otherwise

2. Assume the simplest solution that accounts for the evidence

You're afraid of being tricked, so you assume a more complicated solution. It's unnecessary. I have never had to change my theories once, even as new characters appeared and interacted because I stuck to the most basic idea the evidence covered.

You have your method, I have mine. That's not the point here. We are not here to judge a method but to search theories and to test them by pointing out their contradictions with the facts of the manga.

Also, she overtly tested Conan's deductive abilities in her introductory case. If she feared Conan because he is against the Black organization, she would have concealed that she knew who he was [768.16] and what he was capable of [769.4] in advance to ensure she had an advantage and would have also been more subtle about testing Conan's abilities to avoid making him realize that she was testing him.

But she made it apparent to him that she was testing him. But it was only on a friendly rivalry term.

And the way I see things, even as Bourbon, she needed to gain Conan's confidence in order to investigate him and his close friends, once she suspected him of being Shinichi (and since she probably knew Shinichi as a child, she would have recognized him directly). By making him understand her true identity and the fact that they were friends, she could gain his trust.

You said Sera might get around to killing Sherry. If Sera was a loyal member of the Black Organization, she should have identified Ai was Sherry and have reported or eliminated her. As a new member, bringing in Sherry would have gained her approval and prestige, and with the favor comes more ability to do what one desires, like use resources to look for Akai.

No, that would not be a clever move from her part. Her main goal is Akai. If she tries anything against Haibara, she will reveal herself to Conan and his friends and it will surely compromise her investigations on Akai. Masumi/Bourbon is clever and patient enough not to do that, that's what makes her so different from Gin. If she tries something against Haibara, it will be done once she has already finished with Akai.

She also deleted the information she collected on Haibara. If she was a target, deleting the info doesn't make sense, even if she isn't going to do anything to Haibara right away.

Also a hotel is not a very secure base of operations for a BO agent. People can enter and exit as they please as long as they have a card, which can be used to break in if copied or if Sera is impersonated. Why not use a better backstory so she work from a residence that provides more security for one's personal belongings?

She deletes the picture because it's not a useful element to her. It explained the Youtube case, but once the case is over, it's no longer useful. She probably has more interesting elements about her on her database than this picture.

As for the hotel, it's also a clever move from her. Sure it is a little risky, but on the other hand the FBI doesn't know her identity as Bourbon and, if she goes into a residence with more security, she would be more suspectful than by going into an hotel. And she's supposed to not having lived in Japan for some time, so it would be strange if she had a residence.

But that doesn't mean she isn't able to protect her privacy into an hotel, especially if she is a spy from the Black Organization.

Why does Tohru need to find Bourbon? What is his role? What is this other organization? What are its goals? Considering we are pretty much at the end of the Bourbon arc, the answers should have been put as clues in the manga somewhere.

I think Tooru is part of a rival organization of the Black Organization. Each arc introduced a different organization: the FBI with Vermouth, the CIA with Kir. With Bourbon, I think it could be another criminal organization.

And I don't think we are still at the end of the Bourbon's arc. I think there's still more to come (otherwise, the end of the arc would have begun from chapter 800).

why would she say/think the following lines "I- I thought I saw someone I knew... There is no way though is there" That seems to be strongly implying that she thinks there is no way she could have seen Akai, but Bourbon thinks Akai must be alive because the only one who could kill Akai is him.

For my part, I think she says that because she is troubled. She is convinced he's not dead, but everyone reminds her of the contrary. When it seems like she has hallucinations, I can understand why she would say something like that.

Why did she approach Conan then in the first place? She seemed to know a lot, had done the research on all the people close to Conan, and asks the same kinds of questions Eisuke did when he was trying to confirm Conan is Shinichi.

She knew Shinichi beforehand (so she had many informations about him and his close friends) and she was trying to meet him again. From that point, she tested Conan to make sure he was Shinichi. I doubt she has made such researches on him before, why would Bourbon be interested in this little boy of he knows nothing about his alliance with Akai ?

There was an entire case that took place in the past which gave really important clues that Shinichi met Vermouth before, like the serial killer and the Angel thing... All of this was well before Vermouth's reveal. Nothing like that has happened in this arc, and we are quickly running out of time.

I don't think we are at the end of the arc. I still think more elements will come before that.

Nowhere does it suggest she knows Haibara is a target of the Black Organization. Sure she finds Haibara interesting for some reason (explained below), but I don't see evidence for Sera even knowing anything about the Black Organization.

"Deletion, for data at least, is an easy task to accomplish." How would Sera say something like that if she doesn't know anything about the organization and the fact that Haibara is a target ?

And, as I said, Haibara has clearly felt an aura coming from Sera, so I don't see how Sera couldn't know anything about the Black Organization.

There is also the phone calls. One was from Vermouth. Subaru was likely listening this one by pirating the communication. But, between Masumi and Tooru, one of them received a call from someone else. So Masumi is clearly not alone on her investigation.

And I see several elements until now which suggest Masumi might be a BO operative, without making it too clear, like the picture of Haibara.

In case you are wondering why I think Sera finds Conan and Haibara interesting, it is because she got this picture when it was inadvertently sent home with Akai's things after he died. She traced those pictured as best she could because she wanted to figure out why Akai died (or if he is really dead.)

How can we be sure about that ? The picture could also have burned with Akai's car for what we know.

And I don't think the FBI would do such a mistake. They are very careful about those things. They would never commit such a mistake as to send a picture about one of their cases, especially one of an important witness to them.

[Chekhov MacGuffin 1089]

Part 1: I am going to be busy over the next few days so a reply will not be prompt if it happens at all.

You have your method, I have mine. That's not the point here. We are not here to judge a method but to search theories and to test them by pointing out their contradictions with the facts of the manga.

Which was my reason to point out that discounting a solution because it is "too easy" is not logical. Discount a theory because there are facts about it that are wrong.

But she made it apparent to him that she was testing him. And the way I see things, even as Bourbon, she needed to gain Conan's confidence to investigate once she suspected him of being Shinichi (and since she probably knew Shinichi as a child...)

And testing Conan overtly and revealing she had collected a bunch of facts about him and the people around him would make her seem trustworthy and give Conan confidence in her in what way? Her actions seem stalkerish to me, which is what Conan told Hattori, and Hattori blabbed that thought out loud when he came over to visit.

No, that would not be a clever move from her part. Her main goal is Akai. If she tries anything against Haibara, she will reveal herself to Conan and his friends and it will surely compromise her investigations on Akai. Masumi/Bourbon is clever and patient enough not to do that, that's what makes her so different from Gin. If she tries something against Haibara, it will be done once she has already finished with Akai.

Fair enough.

She deletes the picture because it's not a useful element to her. It explained the Youtube case, but once the case is over, it's no longer useful. She probably has more interesting elements about her on her database than this picture.

It's impossible for the vase case to be her motive for collecting the picture because it hadn't happened yet when Sera got the picture. She had collected it before the case as part of her information gathering on Haibara and was the one who originally told the Detective Boys the reflection existed. Why collect such a picture if you have a more useful database? It's going to be a pretty bad picture. It makes more sense in light of knowing that Haibara has been rather camera shy. If Sera is only using public databases like newspapers because that is all she has access to (i.e. no spiffy Black Org tech), Sera might be motivated to get even a bad image.

As for the hotel, it's also a clever move from her. Sure it is a little risky, but on the other hand the FBI doesn't know her identity as Bourbon and, if she goes into a residence with more security, she would be more suspectful than by going into an hotel. And she's supposed to not having lived in Japan for some time, so it would be strange if she had a residence.

...after everything she did to make Conan as suspicious as possible of her by revealing she had basically info stalked him and everyone around him. If she was Black Org, she has the freedom to invent her back story as she wishes. Why not be a transfer student living in an apartment, or something like that? As Bourbon, living in a hotel means she deliberately chose a less safe option for no reason.

But that doesn't mean she can't protect her privacy into an hotel, especially if she is a spy from the Black Organization.

It makes it unnecessarily more difficult. Even a temporary apartment would be better.

Tooru is part of a rival organization of the Black Organization. Each arc introduced a different organization: the FBI with Vermouth, the CIA with Kir. With Bourbon, I think t could be another criminal organization.

Each time though, said new organization was hinted to exist multiple times. The American Jodie mentioned "The Bureau" stands for the FBI, and then Akai was seen with the FBI guy in NY. The Kir arc revolved around "The Company" and hints about what that was. Nothing similar has shown up this time; all the normal hints are missing.

For my part, I think she says that because she is troubled. She is convinced he's not dead, but everyone reminds her of the contrary. When it seems like she has hallucinations, I can understand why she would say something like that.

Are you saying Sera is hallucinating? And besides, why would Bourbon's conviction be swayed by something so minor after Gin basically said the Bourbon has enough faith in his own ego that he is willing to easily discount an assassination directed by one Organization's most trusted members? Also, who is reminding her Akai is dead? Gin isn't in contact with Bourbon. She hasn't chatted with the FBI about the topic. No one is crying in front of her about Akai's death...

She knew Shinichi beforehand (so she had many informations about him and his close friends) and she was trying to meet him again. From that point, she tested Conan to make sure he was Shinichi. I doubt she has made such researches on him before, why would Bourbon be interested in this little boy of he knows nothing about his alliance with Akai ?

I'm not sure where you are trying to go with this point since it seems to contradict your argument, but Sera obviously did a lot of research ahead of time on Conan. She knew his name, and that he was a good detective. She knew Ran by sight, and that she was a karate champion. She asked Kogoro point blank if Conan is always at his side when he solves cases, which means she has been studying the Mouri cases with enough attention to detail to notice this. She knew about Professor Agasa ahead of time and that he was close with Conan. She knew Haibara was staying with professor Agasa and a bit about her appearance.

"Deletion, for data at least, is an easy task to accomplish." How would Sera say something like that if she doesn't know anything about the organization and the fact that Haibara is a target ?

Although Sera was deleting a picture of Haibara from her computer at the time, it could be interpreted as a general comment that while data is easy to erase, it is much harder to erase traces of someone in real life. By implication that would reveal she is interested in someone who had been "erased", like Akai for example.

[Chekhov MacGuffin 1089]

Part 2

And, as I said, Haibara has clearly sensed an aura coming from Sera, so I don't see how Sera couldn't know anything about the Black Organization.

You are mistaken in your certainty. It could have been from Amuro who was also following, or Vermouth on the bridge.

There is also the phone calls. One was from Vermouth. Subaru was likely listening this one by pirating the communication. But, between Masumi and Tooru, one of them received a call from someone else. So Masumi is clearly not alone on her investigation.

Again, you are being more certain in your conclusions than the evidence warrants. Okiya's device could be a hands free bluetooth set linked to a phone, not a tap. And we have no idea who called who or why, so it's dangerous to make such definitive assumptions without evidence to back it. For all we know, one could be a wrong number and the other could have been pizza delivery telling them they couldn't deliver because no one answered the door.

How can we be sure about that ? The picture could also have burned with Akai's car for what we know.

Akai would have taken it out of his car as a precaution against the police finding it later in case it failed to burn. Also it explains perfectly Sera's interest in Haibara as well as Conan.

And I don't think the FBI would do such a mistake. They are very careful about those things. They would never commit such a mistake as to send a picture about one of their cases, especially one of an important witness to them.

The FBI has made plenty of mistakes before, notably in the Vermouth arc. Also, Akai might very well keep it with his personal things if the picture was sentimental to him, as it is a picture of his dead girlfriend's younger sister whom he may have been asked to protect in a PS message, for example.

[Glass Heart 34]

Part 1

And testing Conan overtly and revealing she had collected a bunch of facts about him and the people around him would make her seem trustworthy and give Conan confidence in her in what way? Her actions seem stalkerish to me, which is what Conan told Hattori, and Hattori blabbed that thought out loud when he came over to visit.

I agree but, at the same time, she hasn't much choice. For her investigation, she needs to join Conan's close circles. She recognizes him as Shinichi but she can't say anything about it to him (otherwise he will suspect she might know more than she admits).

So she places some clues to make him remember but she speaks to Ran instead of Conan (with conan being near).

Problem: he still doesn't remember her (and even if he did, he can't admit since Masumi and Conan aren't suppose to have met before). So she forces her way.

I'll add that Subaru and Tooru are not better in term of stalking: one obviously stalks, the other imposes himself with no reason and even Ran finds him suspicious.

It's impossible for the vase case to be her motive for collecting the picture because it hadn't happened yet when Sera got the picture. She had collected it before the case as part of her information gathering on Haibara and was the one who originally told the Detective Boys the reflection existed. Why collect such a picture if you have a more useful database?

I didn't say she collected the picture because of the case, that's probably even thanks to that picture that she learned about Haibara in the first place. But after she confirms Haibara's presence, the picture was no longer useful to her, and she allows herself to talk about it to Conan (who won't suspect a true BO operative could reveal such an information to them).

Since then, Masumi still wants to meet Haibara and asks Ran and Sonoko questions about her, so she continues her investigations.

The real question is: if she's not Bourbon, why would Masumi be interested by Haibara in the first place ?

...after everything she did to make Conan as suspicious as possible of her by revealing she had basically info stalked him and everyone around him. If she was Black Org, she has the freedom to invent her back story as she wishes. Why not be a transfer student living in an apartment, or something like that? As Bourbon, living in a hotel means she deliberately chose a less safe option for no reason.

It makes it unnecessarily more difficult. Even a temporary apartment would be better.

As I said, if Masumi is Shinichi's childhood friend, she probably knows about Conan being Shinichi's younger self, about Ran, about Kogoro, about Agasa... but not about a girl named Haibara who comes out of nowhere and who seems to be shrinked to the same age than Conan while having a mature attitude.

And I don't understand what's so hard to believe about her backstory. She's a former resident who comes back at the city of her youth and who installes herself at the hotel. I don't see why the hotel should be more difficult than any other place if she knows how to deal with her belongings. She could just have to keep all of the informations she collected on a USB flash drive and to keep it safe.

Nothing similar has shown up this time; all the normal hints are missing.

Which doesn't mean it won't come later.

Are you saying Sera is hallucinating? And besides, why would Bourbon's conviction be swayed by something so minor after Gin basically said the Bourbon has enough faith in his own ego that he is willing to easily discount an assassination directed by one Organization's most trusted members? Also, who is reminding her Akai is dead? Gin isn't in contact with Bourbon. She hasn't chatted with the FBI about the topic. No one is crying in front of her about Akai's death...

Bourbon is still a BO member and he would have heard it from the others, while refusing to accept it (explining how Gin and Vodka would know of it).

But, honestly, I really don't think that someone who thinks Akai to be dead would react like Sera did. Once she saw him, she instantly runs after him with strong determination. She didn't have any second of hesitation like Jodie and Camel who were petrified. I don't know many people who could run after a supposedly dead person like Sera did, and I can only explained it by the fact she didn't thought him to be dead.

Now, she could have thought that she made a mistake this time (being so fixated on finding Akai) after Scar Akai vanished.

I'm not sure where you are trying to go with this point since it seems to contradict your argument, but Sera obviously did a lot of research ahead of time on Conan. She knew his name, and that he was a good detective. She knew Ran by sight, and that she was a karate champion. She asked Kogoro point blank if Conan is always at his side when he solves cases, which means she has been studying the Mouri cases with enough attention to detail to notice this. She knew about Professor Agasa ahead of time and that he was close with Conan. She knew Haibara was staying with professor Agasa and a bit about her appearance.

I don't see any contradiction in my argument. She doesn't have to investigate Shinichi and his friends if she had already known them by the past.

The only one she doesn't know is Ai Haibara, explaining the picture. But, even if she doesn't know her, why would she do an investigation about her unless she needs to know everything there is to know about Conan's close circle ? Maybe because she is Bourbon.

But you're right on two points: she could only have known about Conan's name and his presence around Mouri during the cases by reading some papers. All the more reason for her to be Bourbon if she has read the paper about Akemi Miyano's death and spotted Conan alongside Mouri.

Also, by reading them, as her childhood friend, she could have been able to recognize Shinichi's younger self in Conan, at least having some suspicions she still needs to confirm because she lacks a logical explanation.

As for the last elements:

Everyone in the bus could have learned that Ran was Shinichi's girlfriend and a karate champion by just listening to the girls' conversation. It's even easier if she has heard of Ran, or even met her, by the past.

As for Conan's detective skills, even if she probably knew about it beforehand from papers, he did show them to her by pointing out the real pervert.

[Glass Heart 34]

Part 2

You are mistaken in your certainty. It could have been from Amuro who was also following, or Vermouth on the bridge.

I just read again the chapter and you're right, it could have been Tooru. On the other hand, I doubt she could feel Vermouth by that distance, especially since Haibara said it was behind her (meaning Tooru's car or Masumi's bike).

Again, you are being more certain in your conclusions than the evidence warrants. Okiya's device could be a hands free bluetooth set linked to a phone, not a tap. And we have no idea who called who or why, so it's dangerous to make such definitive assumptions without evidence to back it. For all we know, one could be a wrong number and the other could have been pizza delivery telling them they couldn't deliver because no one answered the door.

I'm sorry but I don't understand why you say that I'm making a dangerous assumption on that one. It would be if it really came out of nowhere, but not if I can make some logic reasoning to prove my point.

Masumi and Tooru's phones rang at the same time. Vermouth can't be calling both of them at the same time (if it is only a possible thing to do) because it would reveal Bourbon's identity to the other. And, apart from Vermouth that was on the scene, who else would call the other that someone who was also already on the scene and who called only after the end of the car chase ?

I really don't think Aoyama would introduce a wrong number or something like that in his story just for the sake of hiding Bouron's identity to the reader.

As for Subaru, he already has his hearphones on and he reacts at the exact same time Masumi and Tooru's phones are ringing, but there was no sound in the Subaru's car (ok, he could have also put the vibrations on, I've also thought of that but maybe it's a little too much).

I agree that we can't totally be sure of anything but the attitude really makes me think of that. The same for the time Subaru did a stunt which seems pretty clear to me that he was trying to shoot at the wheels of the kidnapper's car.

Akai would have taken it out of his car as a precaution against the police finding it later in case it failed to burn. Also it explains perfectly Sera's interest in Haibara as well as Conan.

The FBI has made plenty of mistakes before, notably in the Vermouth arc. Also, Akai might very well keep it with his personal things if the picture was sentimental to him, as it is a picture of his dead girlfriend's younger sister whom he may have been asked to protect in a PS message, for example.

Maybe, but are you sure of that ? Honestly I don't remember any element that could give some validity to that explanation.

Which was my reason to point out that discounting a solution because it is "too easy" is not logical. Discount a theory because there are facts about it that are wrong.

Still, a theory is a theory and that mustn't prevent to think about other possibilities.

But I must thank you for helping me to test this one. I'll have to rethink some parts but the general reasoning seems to work. In fact, you have also helped me quiet a lot to think about some elements and find explanations for them (the reason why Scar Akai appear in front of the FBI), helping me to develop my reasoning further, so I'm grateful.

[Chekhov MacGuffin 1089]

I agree but, at the same time, she hasn't much choice. For her investigation, she needs to join Conan's close circles.

I think she did have a choice. She could have helped Conan solve the case without revealing she knew about him or Ran and then decided to hang around because she enrolled in the same school as Ran and is interested in meeting famous detective Kogoro because she aspires to be a great detective too.

I'll add that Subaru and Tooru are not better in term of stalking: one obviously stalks, the other imposes himself with no reason and even Ran finds him suspicious.

The way I see it, Okiya and Sera are both good and thus don't care what the other party (Haibara / Conan) thinks of them as long as they do/learn what they need to do/learn. Tohru is slightly less obvious because he did do a better job of throwing his first case and coming up with an excuse to hang around. Also remember Bourbon seems to have an ego problem. Just like how Shinichi and most other detectives in the series can't contain themselves, Amuro may have problems with holding back his full intelligence on cases as well.

...the picture was no longer useful to her, and she allows herself to talk about it to Conan (who won't suspect a true BO operative could reveal such an information to them).

I think a bluff like that is too risky and complicated, especially since she has drawn attention and suspicion to herself.

The real question is: if she's not Bourbon, why would Masumi be interested by Haibara in the first place ?

Because Shuuichi had Haibara's picture (the one I showed you before), so Sera suspects Haibara could be connected with Akai's disappearance.

And I don't understand what's so hard to believe about her backstory. She's a former resident who comes back at the city of her youth and who installes herself at the hotel. I don't see why the hotel should be more difficult than any other place if she knows how to deal with her belongings. She could just have to keep all of the informations she collected on a USB flash drive and to keep it safe.

Nothing is hard to believe about her backstory. It's just that if Sera is Bourbon she is making it a lot for dangerous for herself without a good reason when other backstory options are available to her. It doesn't make sense to make things harder on herself if she is Bourbon because she has options. On the other hand, if she is Akai's good little sister come to find out what happened to him, staying in a hotel makes sense because she lacks Black Org resources and doesn't think someone might go after her (which the Black Org is always wary of security wise). A hotel is less safe than an apartment, there is no getting around that.

But, honestly, I really don't think that someone who thinks Akai to be dead would react like Sera did. Once she saw him, she instantly runs after him with strong determination.

Sera may not think Akai is dead, or she doesn't know what to think, or she holds out hopes. I don't know which and it doesn't matter so much because the end result of the plot will be the same.

I don't know many people who could run after a supposedly dead person like Sera did, and I can only explained it by the fact she didn't thought him to be dead.

You are mistaken about Jodie. She chased after him too.

I'm sorry but I don't understand why you say that I'm making a dangerous assumption on that one. It would be if it really came out of nowhere, but not if I can make some logic reasoning to prove my point.

My point is that you can't narrow down who Vermouth called without making assumptions about the identities of the characters. No info was given for who might be on the the other end of the line for the other two (which would help eliminate one or two of the three Bourbon suspects), so you can't use the phone call as proof Sera is Bourbon. I think Vermouth called Amuro, but I don't claim that scene is proof of that.

Maybe, but are you sure of that ? Honestly I don't remember any element that could give some validity to that explanation.

Absolutely. The FBI botched by ...

Getting caught sneaking into Vermouth's office while she was disguised as Araide.

Failing to notice Vermouth had followed them and collected their addresses

Were tricked when Vermouth disguised as Jodie to call off the arrangement to capture Vermouth

Confronted Rikumichi poorly which alerted the Black Org to Rena's position, Rikumichi would have also successfully called the Org had Conan not disabled his phone - the FBI overlooked that.

Panicked at a digitally altered broadcast when the Black Org sent bombs to the hospital and gave away Rena's room location.

[Cindy-Chen 82]

I think Okiya is the "real" Akai, while Scar Akai is Bourbon, with two missions.

He needs to find out if 1: If Shuuichi Akai is really dead by observing the FBI's reactions on seeing Akai again (because if the FBI's reactions are not suprised, then he'll know Akai's dead, or 2: If Akai is alive, find and kill him (again XD).

[detectiveRJB 15]

I think Okiya is the "real" Akai, while Scar Akai is Bourbon, with two missions.

He needs to find out if 1: If Shuuichi Akai is really dead by observing the FBI's reactions on seeing Akai again (because if the FBI's reactions are not suprised, then he'll know Akai's dead, or 2: If Akai is alive, find and kill him (again XD).

if Akai is alive,it's little hard

[Cindy-Chen 82]

If Akai's alive it's what?