Difference between revisions of "User:Chekhov MacGuffin/Latest case"

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m (→‎Scar Akai: Now that room order is known, B not D)
m (→‎Shiho's APTX 4869 version is contaminated with research from Silver Bullet: ref)
 
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==Disclaimers==
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<!--This page is a personal page, please ask on the talk page before editing-->
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*All the pictures on this page are '''temporary files that will be deleted''' at the end of this case to avoid wasting the wiki's bandwidth, so don't hotlink them because they will disappear later. You are free to reupload the pictures elsewhere to avoid this problem.
 
  
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== Case ==
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== Speculation ==
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=== Intended layout ===
 
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Here is the layout of the train and which cabins everyone was supposed to be in. The direction of the train and number of rooms per carriage was determined by carefully examining the panels and conversation.
 
  
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[[File:Chek Planned rooms.PNG]]
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=== Shiho's APTX 4869 version is contaminated with research from Silver Bullet ===
  
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----
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It is known that the [[APTX 4869]] of 17 years ago was used for murder<ref>[[Kohji Haneda]]'s murder</ref> and that Shiho's current version of APTX 4869 is being used for the same purpose.<ref>Gin's attempted murder of Shinichi, Pisco's backup murder plot</ref> It is unlikely that the generally cautious Black Organization would use a custom drug for murder if they knew it had a chance of shrinking the victim and leaving them alive. It also doesn't make much sense that they would kill people using an in-development drug which Shiho explicitly stated was not created for murder<ref name="179p9">Manga [[Volume 18]], File 9 (179), page 9: "The Girl Made Of Lies"</ref> and which [[APTX 4869#Original intent|is suspected to have]] a somewhat miraculous end goal such as deaging, rejuvination, or immortality.
  
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=== The mixup ===
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This contradiction can be explained by the Black Organization mistakenly operating on the assumption that Shiho recreated her parents' [[APTX 4869]] (which may have been tested in the past and found to kill exclusively). It is known that a lab fire destroyed most of Elena and Atsushi's drug project research. Shiho had to piece their research together from fragments. It is certainly possible that damage from the fire destroyed certain context clues that would allow Shiho to figure out which research belonged to the APTX 4869 drug, and which belonged to Silver Bullet. In resurrecting her parents' work, Shiho mixed the research together. This hybrid is the modern [[APTX 4869]].
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Somehow in the course of things, Agasa and Kogoro somehow wound up in cars that were next to each other rather than with one in between them. This means that someone boarded the wrong cabin, or while the cabin was vacant, a culprit moved their stuff to an adjacent car. It is unclear whether Kogoro or Agasa is the one in wrong cabin. As of 818, there are four general possibilities which are listed below.
 
  
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====Agasa's cabin was relocated from 6D to 7D====
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Perhaps because the project took the name [[APTX 4869]] rather than [[Silver Bullet]] and for the most part has similar deadly results, most of the Black Organization seems to have assumed that it is the same drug as before. Their ignorance can an least be partly explained by Shiho hiding certain results so that even executive members of the Organization were not aware APTX 4869 could cause de-aging.<ref>Shinichi's survival for sure, and possibly the one shrunken mouse which was tested. The most significant proof is that no one has figured out Shiho shrank to escape her handcuffs and the locked room. Someone aware of shrinking results could easily extrapolate what happened.</ref> It is possible Shiho may misinformed the Organization about the status of her recreation project, not having realized she had mixed the research until after the Organization intended to use it for killing.  
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After the kids were lured from the cabin by the letter, Agasa was lured out as well afterwards and everything was moved from cabin 6D to cabin 7D. Agasa returned, and thought 7D was really 6D. Conan misjudged the cabins and went to Kogoro's 8B by accident, and then saw Agasa coming out of 7D and became confused.  
 
  
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'''Pros:'''
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This mix-up explains certain conversations, such as the one with Conan about APTX 4869's history which implied the existence over another drug beyond APTX 4869.
  
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'''Cons:'''
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{{quote|'''Haibara:''' And the fact that <nowiki>[</nowiki>[[Kohji Haneda]]'s] name was on the [[List of Black Organization related characters#APTX 4869_Victims|list of victims]] who were given [[APTX  4869]], I'd say there's a good chance that [[Asaka]] was one of the members of the Black Organization!<br>
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*This does not mesh with Conan's evaluation though that he went back the right number of rooms.
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'''Conan:''' I don't get it. Kohji Haneda was killed 17 years ago. Then why is his name under mine in the list?<br>
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*The DB plunked down a bunch of snacks which would be hard to properly cleanup and move to exact spots.  
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'''Haibara:''' Perhaps the person who compiled the list wasn't going by chronological order. Maybe it was sorted by blood type or something.<br>
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'''Conan:''' Wait a minute, so the drug that I was forced to take existed 17 years ago? And you are its creator? How old are you really?<br>
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'''Haibara:''' How rude. I've told you before. I am 18 now. Perhaps it was an early prototype of a drug made by my parents. The information for the drug that I created was mostly taken from the burnt remains of the data that my parents left behind.<br>
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'''Conan:''' Burnt remains? What do you mean?<br>
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'''Haibara:''' Well, the research lab that my parents worked in caught fire, and along with them, most of their research materials were burnt. I heard from the other members of the Organization that it was an accident.<br>
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''Well, what I was really ordered to make was another drug, however...<!-- SPIMER EXACT TRANS FOR THIS ONE LINE-->''|Manga [[Volume 89]], File 11 (948), Pages 3-4: "The Clenched Scissors"}}
  
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[[File:Chek Current sit1.PNG]]
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In this conversation, it makes the most sense that the Black Organization was hoping that Shiho would not work on the prototype APTX 4869 used to kill in the past and instead recreate her parents' final project [[Silver Bullet]] which seems to have fallen through (perhaps by catching fire) before being completed.<ref>Elena Miyano tape 18: "But in order to complete the drug, your dad and I will have to leave you and your sister. Please understand, Shiho."<br>Manga [[Volume 78]], File 4 (821), pgs 7-8: "Mystery Train: Junction"</ref> They gave these orders unaware that Shiho actually did what they wanted her to do, which in turn explains why Shiho said that she did not intend to create a murder drug<ref name="179p9"/> and protested that the drug was used for killing. Instead, the Black Organization seems to mistakenly believe that Shiho had reassembled the prototype APTX 4869 of the past.
  
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====Agasa was tricked in boarding 7D instead of 6D====
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<font color="#333333">This type of development would be so very in character for Gosho, since it involves a significant degree of failing to share information and lots of secret keeping between supposed allies.</font>
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Agasa and entourage were tricked into boarding 7D instead of 6D. Since the numbers are on the outside of the carriages, they would have to be distracted somehow or mixed up inside the train before getting to their room. No one visited each other's cabins and noticed the mixup. Kogoro and entourage were lured out. The victim went into 8B and met with the suspect. The detective boys were called. Because the detective boys were supposed to be in 6D, they thought carriage 7 was next to them, which was really carriage 8, and so went to 8B thinking it was 7B. The murder was thus in 8B, Kogoro's room, and not 7B like they thought. The body was then removed after the detective boys left, possibly to the real 7B or 6B (Agasa's intended cabin), and things were cleaned up before Kogoro and entourage returned.
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<References/>
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'''Pros:'''
 
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*Conan’s room count would be correct.
 
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'''Cons:'''
 
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*Conan would be unlikely to be taken in by the necessary distraction.
 
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*A distraction or confusing move was not mentioned or implied either.
 
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[[File:Chek Current sit3.PNG]]
 
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====Kogoro was tricked into boarding 7B instead of 8B====
 
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Kogoro and entourage were tricked into boarding 7B instead of 8B. Since the numbers are on the outside of the carriages, they would have to be distracted somehow or mixed up inside the train before getting to their room. Kogoro, Sonoko, and Ran were lured out of the cabin, leaving it empty. The victim and a culprit came into the cabin before Conan and the detective boys arrived, and the shooting and chase ensued. Ran and Sonoko then returned to their cabin. Conan then barged in and was mistakenly told he was in 8B.
 
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'''Pros:'''
 
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*Conan’s room count would be correct.
 
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'''Cons:'''
 
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*A distraction or mixing up was not mentioned.
 
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*Kogoro's taking over room 8B from the victim was unannounced to the potential culprit, so they would have insider info or be very fast on their feet to pull off a workable distraction ploy especially if the victim was not explicitly cooperating because the victim may attempt to go to 7B too. Also outsiders think Kogoro is intelligent which would make them more wary of failing.
 
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[[File:Chek Current sit2.PNG]]
 
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====Kogoro's cabin was relocated from 8B to 7B====
 
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This version is a bit more complex because there are several possibilities.
 
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#The murder happened before the room switch. Kogoro and entourage could be lured out of their 8B cabin before or after the murder. The contents of Kogoro's cabin were then relocated to 7B. The victim's things and body(?) were relocated to another room, possibly the now empty 8B.
 
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#The murder happened in the middle of the room switch. Kogoro and entourage were lured into leaving their 8B cabin.
 
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##A suspect grabbed Kogoro's luggage and took it to 7B and met the victim. A suspect put the luggage in the victim's room. The detective boys arrived and the murder took place.
 
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##The victim who desired 8B instead of 7B perpetrated or helped perpetrate the switching. The victim grabbed Kogoro's luggage and took it to 7B. A suspect helped and then tricked him or took advantage of the situation. The detective boys arrived and the murder took place.
 
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#:After the detective boys left, a suspect finished the switch by relocating the victim's luggage and the body(?) to another room, possibly the now empty 8B.
 
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#The murder happened after the room switch. Kogoro and entourage were lured into leaving their 8B cabin.
 
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##The victim was lured into leaving his 7B cabin. A suspect switched the contents of 7B and 8B. The victim was called back in time for the murder.
 
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##The victim who desired 8B instead of 7B perpetrated or helped perpetrate the switching of 7B to 8B. A suspect helped and then tricked him or took advantage of the situation.
 
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#:The detective boys arrived and the murder took place. The victim's body(?) was relocated to another room, possibly the now empty 8B.
 
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'''Pros:'''
 
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*Conan’s room count would be correct.
 
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*Explains the victim's reaction to the detective boys tromping in.
 
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*The victim-helping type explanations have a motive: the vic wants his usual 8B
 
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'''Cons:'''
 
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[[File:Chek Current sit4.PNG]]
 
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=== Scar Akai ===
 
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Scar Akai was seen leaving from a cabin B in a car that was lower in number than 8 in the case of Kogoro being in the wrong cabin or 7 in the case of Agasa being in the wrong cabin. He was heading towards the front of the train.
 
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[[File:Chek Scar Akai appearance.PNG]]
 
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==External Links==
 
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*[http://www.orient-express.com/web/vsoe/cabins.jsp Website for the real life version of the Orient Express]
 

Latest revision as of 22:31, 13 May 2017


Speculation

Shiho's APTX 4869 version is contaminated with research from Silver Bullet

It is known that the APTX 4869 of 17 years ago was used for murder[1] and that Shiho's current version of APTX 4869 is being used for the same purpose.[2] It is unlikely that the generally cautious Black Organization would use a custom drug for murder if they knew it had a chance of shrinking the victim and leaving them alive. It also doesn't make much sense that they would kill people using an in-development drug which Shiho explicitly stated was not created for murder[3] and which is suspected to have a somewhat miraculous end goal such as deaging, rejuvination, or immortality.

This contradiction can be explained by the Black Organization mistakenly operating on the assumption that Shiho recreated her parents' APTX 4869 (which may have been tested in the past and found to kill exclusively). It is known that a lab fire destroyed most of Elena and Atsushi's drug project research. Shiho had to piece their research together from fragments. It is certainly possible that damage from the fire destroyed certain context clues that would allow Shiho to figure out which research belonged to the APTX 4869 drug, and which belonged to Silver Bullet. In resurrecting her parents' work, Shiho mixed the research together. This hybrid is the modern APTX 4869.

Perhaps because the project took the name APTX 4869 rather than Silver Bullet and for the most part has similar deadly results, most of the Black Organization seems to have assumed that it is the same drug as before. Their ignorance can an least be partly explained by Shiho hiding certain results so that even executive members of the Organization were not aware APTX 4869 could cause de-aging.[4] It is possible Shiho may misinformed the Organization about the status of her recreation project, not having realized she had mixed the research until after the Organization intended to use it for killing.

This mix-up explains certain conversations, such as the one with Conan about APTX 4869's history which implied the existence over another drug beyond APTX 4869.

Haibara: And the fact that [Kohji Haneda's] name was on the list of victims who were given APTX 4869, I'd say there's a good chance that Asaka was one of the members of the Black Organization!
Conan: I don't get it. Kohji Haneda was killed 17 years ago. Then why is his name under mine in the list?
Haibara: Perhaps the person who compiled the list wasn't going by chronological order. Maybe it was sorted by blood type or something.
Conan: Wait a minute, so the drug that I was forced to take existed 17 years ago? And you are its creator? How old are you really?
Haibara: How rude. I've told you before. I am 18 now. Perhaps it was an early prototype of a drug made by my parents. The information for the drug that I created was mostly taken from the burnt remains of the data that my parents left behind.
Conan: Burnt remains? What do you mean?
Haibara: Well, the research lab that my parents worked in caught fire, and along with them, most of their research materials were burnt. I heard from the other members of the Organization that it was an accident.
Well, what I was really ordered to make was another drug, however...

—Manga Volume 89, File 11 (948), Pages 3-4: "The Clenched Scissors"

In this conversation, it makes the most sense that the Black Organization was hoping that Shiho would not work on the prototype APTX 4869 used to kill in the past and instead recreate her parents' final project Silver Bullet which seems to have fallen through (perhaps by catching fire) before being completed.[5] They gave these orders unaware that Shiho actually did what they wanted her to do, which in turn explains why Shiho said that she did not intend to create a murder drug[3] and protested that the drug was used for killing. Instead, the Black Organization seems to mistakenly believe that Shiho had reassembled the prototype APTX 4869 of the past.

This type of development would be so very in character for Gosho, since it involves a significant degree of failing to share information and lots of secret keeping between supposed allies.

  1. ^ Kohji Haneda's murder
  2. ^ Gin's attempted murder of Shinichi, Pisco's backup murder plot
  3. ^ a b Manga Volume 18, File 9 (179), page 9: "The Girl Made Of Lies"
  4. ^ Shinichi's survival for sure, and possibly the one shrunken mouse which was tested. The most significant proof is that no one has figured out Shiho shrank to escape her handcuffs and the locked room. Someone aware of shrinking results could easily extrapolate what happened.
  5. ^ Elena Miyano tape 18: "But in order to complete the drug, your dad and I will have to leave you and your sister. Please understand, Shiho."
    Manga Volume 78, File 4 (821), pgs 7-8: "Mystery Train: Junction"
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