Okiya is Akai theory

Start for what should become the part of the speculation page for Okiya's identity. For now its a copy paste out of the stuff I did at DCTP. I'll page move it if people agree it is satisfactory.

Suggestive evidence that Okiya is Akai

Okiya and Akai have similar appearance and habits

Okiya and Akai have a similar face shape and similar heights. When Ran kicked Okiya’s jaw, it was clear Okiya was not wearing a mask. Akai looks similar enough to Okiya that a wig and glasses are the only props needed for his disguise. He could have also had his hair straightened and dyed as well. We can’t see if Okiya has the Akai-like cheekbone lines due to his hair covering that part of his face. Akai probably wears glasses with an incorrect prescription so he is forced to squint on purpose like Genta’s dad did in the "Boar Scroll" case. Akai and Okiya both share the habit of putting their hands into their pockets. Also, they both tend to wear long sleeved business-like ensembles with high collars.

A picture of how their faces are similar would be nice here.

Okiya and Akai are both left handed

Fill out evidence for both sides here

Conan trusts Okiya despite Haibara's misgivings

Conan is paranoid; his trust around Okiya would be out of character for him if there wasn't a good reason for it. He didn't trust Jodie even though he knew that she was probably an FBI agent unless she could prove that Dr. Araide was Vermouth. Conan easily lends Okiya the keys to his house. Conan also trusts Okiya to help in cases that put him in close contact with both Haibara and him, like switching out the gasoline in a container for water to solve a case, or calling him to pick up everyone when Agasa’s car broke down, etc… Also, Conan doesn’t mind the fact that Okiya is around Haibara.

Conan lied to Haibara about why he trusts Okiya

"A Holmes fan can't be a bad person!": this is a terrible excuse; Conan can’t be serious. There was an entire murder case where all the suspects were Holmes fans. Conan didn't trust any of them. The password for the APTX data in "Reunion With the Black Corps" was “Sherringford” – one of the names Sir Arthur C. Doyle considered for his protagonist before choosing “Sherlock Holmes,” a likely indication that someone in the B.O. is a fan of the detective. Conan’s expression when he lets Okiya stay next door clearly shows he has another reason for why he trusts Okiya.

Conan seems to know about Okiya’s address despite having never met him

In the "Red, White and Yellow" case, Conan seems to recognize the address Okiya was staying at despite never having met Okiya before. This reaction would make sense if Akai told Conan where he was living while in disguise. While Okiya must have lived there long enough though for the kid to recognize his flower watering habits, the passage of time in DC is difficult to judge. Also, Okiya watered the plants everyday when no one else did previously, which means the kid could notice when the garden improved after a few days of care.

Ran feels like she has seen Okiya before

Ran feels like she has seen Okiya from somewhere. Ran has met Akai thrice where she can remember: once in New York City, in a restaurant, and another time after the "Dark Footprint" arc. Ran's hunches are also pretty reliable; in the "Shirigami" case Ran acted abnormally around the fake Shinichi despite not consciously knowing the reason.

"Okiya Subaru", "Moroboshi Dai", and "Akai Shuuichi" are all references to Mobile Suit Gundam character Char Aznable.

The “Akai” (meaning red) part of Akai’s name refers to Mobile Suit Gundam character Char Aznable’s nickname “Red comet.” “Shuuichi” is a reference to the voice actor of Char Aznable, Ikeda Shuuichi (who incidentally became Akai’s voice actor too). Moroboshi Dai, the alias Akai used while he was undercover in the Syndicate, comes from part of Char's real name, Casval Rem Deikun, with "Dei" pronounced as "Dai" (ダイ) in Japanese. In Moroboshi (諸星), the first kanji can be broken up into 言者 which when pronounced as げんしゃ (gensho) sounds very similar to the word for "phenomenon" (genshou). The second character (星) means "star". Moroboshi, read as "Star phenomenon" references falling stars or maybe comets. “Okiya Subaru” is a pun on Char Aznable’s real name which is キャスバル “Kiyasubaru” (romanized as 'Casval').

No multi-case character has ever died in Detective Conan.

Despite the otherwise large numbers of dead people, Aoyama Gosho has never killed off anyone who has been around for more than one case, much less a protagonist. The closest Gosho has ever gotten was the death of Matsuda Jinpei in "The Trembling Police Headquarters" arc, but we knew he was dead going into the story. Gosho has had 600 chapters to set a precedent.

Rebuttals of arguments that Okiya is a member of the Black Organization

Okiya drinks a bottle of bourbon - Akai likes bourbon whiskey

Okiya was drinking Bourbon at the end of the Paper Airplane case. This isn’t definitive evidence and has been misleadingly used to hint that the FBI agent Jodie was Vermouth. Also FBI agent Camel noted that bourbon is Akai's favorite drink.

Okiya is smart and detective-like just like Bourbon - but so is Akai

According to CIA agent Hidemi (Kir) Bourbon is a smart detective-like fellow who excels at gathering information. Akai is also smart and detective-like too. He managed to find James Black in the "P&A" case although we don't know how he did it. In the "Black Impact!" arc, he figured out Mouri Kogoro would be a target well in advance. He noticed Hidemi was faking her coma while she was being kept in a the hospital. He came up with a good plan on how to return Hidemi to the organization. He figured out that Hidemi would likely be asked to kill him after returning to the organization to prove her loyalty and he came up with a plan in advance to realistically fake his death.

Link to Akai's fake death method here.

Okiya triggers Haibara's black org senses - Akai does too

Akai does too although she never explicitly says he does. It isn't surprising since he infiltrated the Black Org. before under the alias Moroboshi Dai where he received the codename Rye and worked under Gin. He freaks out Haibara in the "P and A" case and also in the "Dark Footprint" arc. There were no other agents around both of these times that could cause her to feel the aura.

Conan doesn't want Okiya to learn much about Shinichi - because Conan is paranoid even around friendlies

Conan hid all his pictures and family albums and told Ran not to talk about Shinichi around Okiya. As stated before, Conan is a paranoid person even when he is pretty sure the people he is cooperating with are friendlies. He didn't trust Jodie right up until Vermouth revealed herself. Limiting the number of people who know information that could get everyone around you killed is a good idea in general. The syndicate has gotten the better of the FBI in past cases and the org probably spies on the FBI heavily. Thus if it isn’t necessary, Conan would probably prefer the FBI doesn’t know his true identity.

Ran has the feeling she shouldn't talk about Shinichi with Okiya - because Akai is scary

Ran has the feeling she shouldn't talk about Shinichi with Okiya. Akai is a pretty intense person – he is described as an evil-eyed man by Conan. Also, Akai seriously frightened Ran during their first meeting in New York which would lead to negative association. Also, she may be picking up on Akai's curiosity towards Shinichi which simply makes her nervous after Conan warned her about it.

Okiya gave a cryptic answer why his favorite color is black - because Akai worked in the Org

Okiya declared that his favorite is black, "because it covers things inside me that I don't want known", although he hates the color for the same reason. The reason for this is Akai worked in the organization as a mole, and he probably had to commit quite a few crimes in order to gain enough trust to progress up the Syndicate’s ranks. It’s actually very stressful for undercover spies. It’s no surprise why Akai would hate the color black too. Also Akai is generally a cryptic sort of person.

"Conan is letting Okiya stay at his home to spy on him" - too dangerous for Conan to try

While the saying goes, "keep your friends close and your enemies closer", this is a ridiculous idea because Conan would be putting everyone he cares about in danger. There is no way that Conan would let a potential B.O. agent live near Haibara since, as neighbors, they have a high chance of meeting. A syndicate agent with any observational talent would figure out Haibara was Sherry. Anyone who knows her would probably be murdered. Also, by letting Okiya live in the house, it is certain that Okiya will find out Shinichi is alive. Conan himself basically told Okiya that Shinichi was alive when loaning his house keys out. If Okiya were a B.O. agent, that would mean an inevitable death sentence for everyone Conan knows, including Ran, because the B.O. would want to erase everyone who might know Shinichi was still alive and what he was investigating since Shinichi may have left compromising hints or the like. Basically, a B.O. agent living next door who isn’t Vermouth or similar is a death sentence. Conan previously acknowledged that his house would be one of the best places so spy on Haibara and him from. It stands to reason that he might consider an ally like Akai living there a bonus, especially since the new agent Bourbon is wandering around, despite the risk of Akai figuring out that Conan is Shinichi.

"Conan is making a mistake thinking Okiya is Akai when he isn’t" - not likely

In general, this theory seems implausible because it depends too much on the idea that Conan is making a really dumb mistake. It would be out of character for Conan. If Conan were to think Okiya might be Akai then clearly Akai had a plan to fake his death with Hidemi’s help. The person impersonating Akai would have had to know Conan was in on it too in order to successfully fool Conan. So far the only B.O. agent known to suspect Conan is Vermouth. In "Silent Clash", it was shown that Okiya is not Vermouth because they both appeared at the same time. Also, there is the basic problem of how did she or any other agent for that matter get the critical information necessary to impersonate Akai as Okiya since Akai, Conan, and Kir planned out everything in secrecy? Also, if an agent besides Vermouth managed to get ahold of this information, then Kir, Conan and Haibara would probably be dead by now.

What was up with that line of Okiya's about "I've known his face..."? - it was a secret message for Conan

In "Silent Clash", Okiya says something mysterious about seeing someone familiar from the Teito bank heist. It was a message for Conan. Conan knows from what Okiya said that he had seen scar Akai, and Okiya's comments that, "Actually, I happened to see him on that floor. Unfortunately, it seems he wasn't who I thought he was, so I didn't talk to him. I've known his face for a very long time... There's no way I could be mistaken." You can parse his quote this way: "Actually, I happened to see that person who looked like Akai on that floor. This Akai wasn't the real Akai (since I'm the real one), and I didn't confront him. Being the real Akai, this scar Akai is obviously someone else..." Okiya is layering his conversation with a second meaning, confirming there is someone disguising as Akai, for Conan's benefit, and Conan is a bit surprised and nervous about the info since someone in the Org most likely is Scar Akai since they have the motive.

Rebuttals of theories that Okiya is someone else

Okiya is probably NOT a third party or new character

Okiya is unlikely to be a third party because he knows about Conan's tracking glasses and the detective badges. Conan has never used the tracking glasses in front of Okiya. A third party would not be privy to Conan's gadgets. The mechanism to operate Conan's glasses isn't obvious, so only someone who knows about their existence beforehand could recognize the glasses at Agasa's and figure out how to activate the tracking function. Akai Shuuichi could have heard about the glasses in several ways. The first source is when James Black was kidnapped while he had Ayumi's detective badge. Conan used the badge to track down James Black. James was waiting to meet with Akai before he was kidnapped and drove away with Akai after he was rescued. Akai could have also heard about the tracking function from Jodie when Conan chased after Kir to prevent an assassination. Finally, Akai may also know about them from when Haibara borrowed the glasses to find Conan at the shipping yards in climax of the Vermouth arc. He was present at the time and would have seen Haibara wearing them even though she has never worn glasses when Akai had seen her previously.

Okiya is NOT Kudo Yuusaku

This is a much stronger theory than the Okiya is a member of the Org theory, but there are some contradictions I can come up with.

1. Okiya is left handed while Kudo Yuusaku appears to be right handed based although he may be ambidextrous.
2. If Okiya was Yuusaku, why would Conan hide information about himself and family albums and the like from his own father? It is pointless because Yuusaku already knows Conan’s secret and probably also knows Haibara's as well given that she was comfortable passing an antidote for Shinichi off to them during the London case. At the very least Yukiko knows.
3. Ran has the feeling she shouldn’t talk about Shinichi in front of Okiya. Why would Shinichi’s father, even in disguise, give her those vibes?
4. It seems unusual that Prof. Agasa wouldn’t have felt like he knew Okiya from somewhere considering that Yuusaku is a close friend and old neighbor of his.
5. Okiya gives Haibara the black org vibes. Yuusaku as far as we know was never in the org and it would require a conspiracy on the part of Yuusaku to keep the knowledge of his dark past from his son. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.
6. Okiya seems to recognize scar Akai. There is no known connection between scar Akai and Yuusaku although there definitely is one if Okiya is Akai. As in 5 it would require a conspiracy on Yuusaku’s part which to date there is no evidence of.

Okiya is NOT Kaito Kid.

Okiya is unlikely to be Kaito Kid since there is no evidence suggesting this is the case. Kid doesn't give Haibara the dark vibes in "Kichiemon's Crazy Mansion" case or Kirin's Horn case when he is disguise or in his full Kaito Kid regalia.

Scar Akai is not the real Akai

Scar Akai is right handed, not left handed like Akai

Scar Akai used his right hand to fire a handgun and to hand back a cellphone. It is unlikely scar Akai is simply using his right hand because he injured his left. In the "Teito Bank Heist", he easily escaped the duct tape binding his hands, yet probably did not use the same method that Jodie used because there was still duct tape over his mouth. It doesn't make much sense for him to put the duct tape back his mouth again afterwards. Removing it with only one hand, especially if it's his off hand, would be difficult especially if robbers are watching you. (His eyes were covered so scar Akai couldn't be sure that no one was watching until the robbers pretended to be hostages which would give him only a few minutes to escape.) Switching handedness after head trauma does not appear to have been documented in scientific literature. That is not to say Gosho wouldn't consider using head trauma as an excuse to switch handedness, but it means that the concept lacks a precedent.

Scar Akai's behavior does not make sense if he is Akai

If scar Akai is the real Akai, one must assume he either has his memory or he doesn't have it. If he has his memory, Akai would absolutely not wander around in the open since it puts Hidemi (Kir) at risk with no gains to be made from doing so. The Organization's actions in the "Thirteen Red Shirts" case demonstrate the danger.

If Akai does not have his memory, then it is plausible Akai would walk around in the open without knowing the danger he is in, however Akai's actions strongly suggest his memory is still intact. He seems to be stalking the FBI by appearing before them: something he would not do if he had lost all of his memory. Further emphasizing the point, Akai also apparently left a warning message to Jodie on her drink coaster during the events of the thirteen red shirts case. If perhaps he recognized the FBI a little and felt comfortable enough to leave Jodie a message, it is strange that he would not speak to the FBI agents since Scar Akai is clearly capable of speaking. Scar Akai also appears to recognize Chianti. Would you smile at a sniper if you had no idea who you were?

A more reasonable explanation is that Scar Akai is not Akai and avoided speaking because he is unable to imitate Akai's voice. The person in disguise as Akai is trying to gauge from the FBI's reactions whether the real Akai is dead or not.

Gin's actions suggest that he doesn't think Scar Akai is the real Akai

Since Gin called Hidemi in the "Thirteen Red Shirts" case, he has held a gun to her head the entire time. When Scar Akai leaves the department store in "Silent Clash", Gin observes him. After he gives the order for Chianti to leave, he lowers the gun from Hidemi's head. While Gin might not have wanted to shoot someone in front of a busy department store crawling with cops with an unsilenced gun, if he thought that Hidemi was a traitor who had helped Akai fake his death, Gin would not have lowered his gun since Hidemi may attempt to retaliate in some fashion now that her cover has been blown. The lowering of the gun is concession on Gin's part that he knows or strongly suspects scar Akai isn't the real Akai.